[BmwIowa]

Originally Posted by techwhiz1

...but I am frustrated with ignorant and uneducated people that don't understand economics and supply chain..

Yes...and those folks inhabit Washington, D.C. I think a pre-requisite for serving in Congress or the Administration is demonstrated understanding of basic economics.....

I too have a 2 series order in process....inked on Wednesday, subject to getting a February allocation but final delivery is subject to no increase in quoted price...maybe tariffs are levied...but then cancelled before my likely summertime delivery timeframe....

[WWM3]

I have clients who pushed forward inventory acquisitions and capital spending due to tariff concerns. Smart.

Personally, I find the situation frustrating. Trump negotiated the current trade agreement with Mexico/Canada and its renewal/renegotiation was only due several years from now IIRC. He’s criticizing US allies and the ramifications of his own agreement. And now taxpayers have to potentially pay extreme tariffs? Imagine spending billions on cap-ex like BMW and then this happens? Let’s hope this situation is resolved without harm to American taxpayers and companies caught in the middle.

[LateBrake8]

Originally Posted by BMWCompact

BMWs are manufactured in the US, so that would exempt 2 and 3 series Mexico-built cars from the tariffs? Yeah, no, probably not as per this article.

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/01/31/trum...-industry.html

Where does this article make any reference to exemptions, or lack thereof? Though it doesn't go into specifics or cite any law/precedent, this article says,

"Most of the UK’s biggest carmakers — the likes of Nissan, Toyota and Stellantis — have factories in the US, making them exempt from tariffs."

I'm not making an argument/claim one way or another. Just being optimistic in hopes that my build won't be affected lol.

[BMWCompact]

Originally Posted by LateBrake8

"Most of the UK’s biggest carmakers — the likes of Nissan, Toyota and Stellantis — have factories in the US, making them exempt from tariffs."

Everything is speculation at this point.

The author of the article you quote above, from an article dated November 2024 - what basis or documentation does he have to make this suggestion that those three car makers would be exempt from tariffs?

[M2M3M3]

Originally Posted by LateBrake8

Where does this article make any reference to exemptions, or lack thereof? It doesn't.

Though it doesn't go into specifics or cite any law/precedent, this article says,

"Most of the UK’s biggest carmakers — the likes of Nissan, Toyota and Stellantis — have factories in the US, making them exempt from tariffs."

That article is about UK. NOT Mexico. Of course factories in the US are exempt from import taxes... they are in the US.

The mexico import tax has nothing to do with balance of trade, it is a bully move to satisfy his immigration ego.

[LateBrake8]

Originally Posted by BMWCompact

Everything is speculation at this point.

The author of the article you quote above, from an article dated November 2024 - what basis or documentation does he have to make this suggestion that those three car makers would be exempt from tariffs?

Doesn't appear to be any; I pointed that out. All we can do is speculate, like you said.

[LateBrake8]

Originally Posted by M2M3M3

That article is about UK. NOT Mexico. Of course factories in the US are exempt from import taxes... they are in the US.

You're right, I may have misinterpreted that to read "having factories in the US made non-US cars exempt," but that is not the case.

[LateBrake8]

Originally Posted by BMWCompact

Everything is speculation at this point.

The author of the article you quote above, from an article dated November 2024 - what basis or documentation does he have to make this suggestion that those three car makers would be exempt from tariffs?

Originally Posted by M2M3M3

That article is about UK. NOT Mexico. Of course factories in the US are exempt from import taxes... they are in the US.

The mexico import tax has nothing to do with balance of trade, it is a bully move to satisfy his immigration ego.

BMW's presence in the U.S. alone doesn't guarantee them an exemption, but it does provide some form of leverage to negotiate.

Like I said, just trying to be optimistic. That aside, not looking too good. Here's hoping that compromises/creative workarounds are made, or that BMW eats the tariffs for those of us that have cars in production.

[LateBrake8]

Some discourse with ChatGPT, for those who care to read. It's basically saying the same thing as above, albeit with some more depth.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I. Overview: The Core Argument for Exemption

BMW is one of the largest foreign automakers operating in the U.S., particularly through its Spartanburg, South Carolina facility, which produces high-volume SUV models (X3, X5, X7, etc.). Given its strong U.S. presence, the argument is that BMW should receive exemptions or preferential tariff treatment for its imports from Mexico, leveraging its overall economic contribution.

The key claim here is that BMW’s domestic manufacturing, job creation, and economic footprint in the U.S. should allow it to negotiate exemptions on tariffs imposed on vehicles built in Mexico. While this argument has some merit in trade policy discussions, several legal, economic, and historical challenges arise.

II. Legal & Policy Issues: Can BMW’s U.S. Presence Justify an Exemption? - U.S. Trade Law & Tariff Policy

1. Tariffs Are Based on Country of Origin, Not Company Presence
U.S. tariff laws do not automatically exempt foreign-made goods just because the company has a U.S. presence. Under both the Trade Expansion Act of 1962 (Section 232) and the Tariff Act of 1930, tariffs apply based on where a product is made, not based on a company’s operations elsewhere.

Legal Precedent: The Chicken Tax (25% on light trucks) has remained in place for decades, even affecting automakers with U.S. plants.

2. Exemptions Require Diplomatic or Legislative Action
To receive a tariff exemption, BMW would need government intervention—either:

a. A formal exemption granted by the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR)
b. Special treatment negotiated in trade talks (e.g., a BMW-specific clause in USMCA adjustments)
c. Lobbying Congress to pass a specific carve-out

3. BMW’s Argument: Economic Contribution Justifies Preferential Treatment
BMW could argue that it creates thousands of American jobs and significantly contributes to U.S. exports, warranting special treatment.

Problem: Trade laws do not recognize "contributions" as a basis for tariff exemptions. Past cases (such as Toyota and Honda in the 1980s) show that companies must align production strategies with existing trade laws, rather than rely on political goodwill.

III. Economic and Trade Implications

1. The “BMW as a Net Exporter” Argument
BMW exports more U.S.-made vehicles than it imports from Mexico. BMW is actually the largest U.S. vehicle exporter by value ($9+ billion per year), mostly shipping SUVs to Europe and China. If BMW were hit with tariffs on Mexico-built vehicles, they could threaten to reduce U.S. production or exports, which could impact jobs and tax revenue in states like South Carolina.

Counterpoint: Could the U.S. Afford to Lose BMW Investment?
BMW employs over 11,000 workers in the U.S. and supports thousands of supplier jobs. Tariffs on Mexico-built BMWs could lead to higher consumer prices or BMW reducing U.S. operations in retaliation. But, historically, the U.S. government has not made direct concessions to individual automakers based on investment size alone.

2. Risk of Retaliation from Trading Partners
If the U.S. grants BMW an exemption, other carmakers with U.S. plants (e.g., Toyota, Mercedes, VW, Honda) could demand the same treatment. Countries affected by U.S. tariffs, such as Mexico or the European Union, could retaliate by imposing counter-tariffs on U.S. exports (including BMW’s U.S.-made SUVs).

Example: The EU has previously imposed tariffs on American-made motorcycles and whiskey in response to U.S. tariffs on European goods.

IV. Precedents: Have Companies Received Exemptions Before?

1. Automakers With Large U.S. Operations & Preferential Treatment
a. 1980s Japanese Auto Voluntary Export Restraints (VERs)
Japanese automakers like Toyota, Honda, and Nissan agreed to limit vehicle exports to the U.S. in exchange for avoiding harsh tariffs. This arrangement ultimately led Japanese manufacturers to build U.S. plants rather than seeking exemptions on imported vehicles.

b. 2018-2019 Trump Auto Tariff Threats
BMW, Toyota, and others lobbied aggressively when Trump threatened tariffs under Section 232 (national security tariffs) on foreign-made vehicles. No individual automaker was granted an exemption; instead, Japan negotiated a broader agreement to prevent tariffs. Mexico was not exempted from potential auto tariffs despite major U.S. investments by manufacturers.

c. Ford’s Chicken Tax Workaround
Ford attempted to bypass the Chicken Tax by importing the Transit Connect from Turkey as a “passenger van” and removing the seats after importation. U.S. Customs cracked down on this strategy, forcing Ford to pay retroactive tariffs—highlighting that U.S. authorities strictly enforce import classifications.

2. Are There Any Cases Where U.S. Presence Alone Granted an Exemption?
No known instance exists where an automaker’s U.S. presence alone secured a tariff exemption for vehicles manufactured in another country. The closest example might be lobbying efforts that led to trade agreements (e.g., Japan avoiding Section 232 tariffs), but this applied industry-wide, not to individual companies.

V. Conclusion: How Strong Is BMW’s Leverage?

BMW’s U.S. economic contributions give it lobbying power, but no automatic tariff exemption. U.S. trade laws apply tariffs based on vehicle origin, not company nationality or investment levels. If BMW wants an exemption, it would need to engage in intense political lobbying or secure a diplomatic agreement, as exemptions are not granted unilaterally. Precedents show that companies have had to adjust strategies rather than rely on special exemptions (e.g., Japanese automakers shifting production to the U.S.). If the U.S. government makes an exemption for BMW, it would likely have to extend similar treatment to other automakers, creating broader trade implications.

Final Thought: Will BMW Get an Exemption?

Most Likely Outcome: If auto tariffs on Mexico are imposed, BMW will either absorb costs, adjust supply chains, or lobby for broader trade negotiations.

[Ronin76]

Welp, I guess the guys who will be getting their cars in the next month or two will be the guinea pigs. I am expecting to get my car in July (going into production in May) and if the tariffs are still around I will have to see what the M2 is selling for on dealer lots (even 2024 models) and decided what I want to do.

[spurcap]

Originally Posted by LateBrake8

BMW's presence in the U.S. alone doesn't guarantee them an exemption, but it does provide some form of leverage to negotiate.

Like I said, just trying to be optimistic. That aside, not looking too good. Here's hoping that compromises/creative workarounds are made, or that BMW eats the tariffs for those of us that have cars in production.

The only exemption I can see BMW getting is if it's a net exporter in the US ... I assume it is not but have no info on the Spartenburgh numbers. Anyone know? I guess there is a chance that there are more Mexican exports from US than Mexican imports to US? Probably not. All speculation anway....

[aerobod]

Originally Posted by spurcap

The only exemption I can see BMW getting is if it's a net exporter in the US ... I assume it is not but have no info on the Spartenburgh numbers. Anyone know? I guess there is a chance that there are more Mexican exports from US than Mexican imports to US? Probably not. All speculation anway....

BMW is a net exporter from the US, they export more vehicles (both numerically and value-wise) from Spartanburg than they import to the US market from all other BMW factories around the world, let alone Mexico.

[JABCAT]

Originally Posted by LateBrake8

Some discourse with ChatGPT, for those who care to read. It's basically saying the same thing as above, albeit with some more depth.

ChatGPT provides so much incorrect and just bad information on a multitude of subjects. Using it as a reference is worse than using wikipedia.

[LateBrake8]

Originally Posted by JABCAT

ChatGPT provides so much incorrect and just bad information on a multitude of subjects. Using it as a reference is worse than using wikipedia.

Sensationalist nonsense.

[T.R.S.]

Originally Posted by LateBrake8

Some discourse with ChatGPT, for those who care to read. It's basically saying the same thing as above, albeit with some more depth.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Final Thought: Will BMW Get an Exemption?

Most Likely Outcome: If auto tariffs on Mexico are imposed, BMW will either absorb costs, adjust supply chains, or lobby for broader trade negotiations.

Wow, BMW is going to just absorb a 25% price increase instead of passing it on to the customer in any way because I guess they'd still turn a profit on the sale? If that's the case then I'm really pissed that I didn't negotiate harder for a bigger discount off MSRP since apparently they've been ripping us off royally and can now just suck it up and go merrily on their way.

Thanks AI. You weren't any smarter than me but if I'd have just gone with you then I wouldn't have gotten so distracted and expended so much energy by having to actually think for myself. You can so easily persuaded me with your algorithms to just accept something that's minimally plausible as a fact.

[JABCAT]

Originally Posted by LateBrake8

Sensationalist nonsense.

Sorry, you're incorrect.

[ASAP]

Originally Posted by T.R.S.

Wow, BMW is going to just absorb a 25% price increase instead of passing it on to the customer in any way because I guess they'd still turn a profit on the sale? If that's the case then I'm really pissed that I didn't negotiate harder for a bigger discount off MSRP since apparently they've been ripping us off royally and can now just suck it up and go merrily on their way.

Thanks AI. You weren't any smarter than me but if I'd have just gone with you then I wouldn't have gotten so distracted and expended so much energy by having to actually think for myself. You can so easily persuaded me with your algorithms to just accept something that's minimally plausible as a fact.

tarrifs aren't levied on the retail price of a product lol... i don't know why anyone thinks that... they are levied on the transfer price of a product from one country to another... that ultimately depends on how BMW manages their accounting

they could sell the car for $1 from BMW manufacturing to BMW NA and then there is virtually no tariff... the reality is somewhere in between however i hope no one thinks an m2 price will go up 25%... because if it does, it means BMW is taking advantage of the consumer and the situation... this happened last time when tarrifs were levied by many companies

[manitou202]

Originally Posted by ASAP

tarrifs aren't levied on the retail price of a product lol... i don't know why anyone thinks that... they are levied on the transfer price of a product from one country to another... that ultimately depends on how BMW manages their accounting

they could sell the car for $1 from BMW manufacturing to BMW NA and then there is virtually no tariff... the reality is somewhere in between however i hope no one thinks an m2 price will go up 25%... because if it does, it means BMW is taking advantage of the consumer and the situation... this happened last time when tarrifs were levied by many companies

There are many rules for how you calculate the value of the tariff. There is no way BMW will be able to "sell the car" to BMW NA for $1. They essentially need to show a costed BOM with Mexico labor added in.

If the MSRP of an M2 is $65k, the actual BOM and manufacturing cost may be something like $45k. So the tariff would be 25% of the $45k. So not as bad as adding 25% to the MSRP, but still high enough that BMW isn't going to eat that cost. They will pass on most, if not all the tariff onto consumers. Or they will simply stop selling imported vehicles in the US. They might make an exception for cars already in process, but I would guess that is unlikely to be honest.

Sorry for anyone waiting for a car. This really sucks I'm sure.

[ASAP]

Originally Posted by manitou202

There are many rules for how you calculate the value of the tariff. There is no way BMW will be able to "sell the car" to BMW NA for $1. They essentially need to show a costed BOM with Mexico labor added in.

If the MSRP of an M2 is $65k, the actual BOM and manufacturing cost may be something like $45k. So the tariff would be 25% of the $45k. So not as bad as adding 25% to the MSRP, but still high enough that BMW isn't going to eat that cost. They will pass on most, if not all the tariff onto consumers. Or they will simply stop selling imported vehicles in the US. They might make an exception for cars already in process, but I would guess that is unlikely to be honest.

Sorry for anyone waiting for a car. This really sucks I'm sure.

Correct, I am glad that you are one of the few people that understand this... the $1 comment was meant as hyperbole... however even in your example... 20% of 45k is 9k... bmw could pass on $5k of that and eat the other $4k... many companies did this to not lose market share and they would have to do this to not creep into M4 pricing... that will be the decision... however it is either that (a compromised approach) or remove the M2 from the largest m market in the world... doubt that would happen... so what would happen is the former...

[manitou202]

Originally Posted by ASAP

Correct, I am glad that you are one of the few people that understand this... the $1 comment was meant as hyperbole... however even in your example... 25% of 45k is 9k... bmw could pass on $5k of that and eat the other $4k... many companies did this to not lose market share and they would have to do this to not creep into M4 pricing... that will be the decision... however it is either that (a compromised approach) or remove the M2 from the largest m market in the world... doubt that would happen... so what would happen is the former...

I think BMW will come up with a compromise for vehicles in process. Maybe similar to what you suggested above. I'm not so sure about new orders. Taking a $4k hit is a lot and most companies won't absorb that large of a hit for long. They may pause production for a period of time, or shift sales to other regions temporarily and wait to see if the tariffs go away. Like I said in a previous post, my company which imports a lot from Mexico plans to add all of the tariff to the price of our products as a "surcharge". Our ELT is will not let profits suffer, as it would hit our share price. Although lower sales will impact our share price as well, so I don't think our ELT has fully thought this through.

The frustrating part is no one knows how long the tariffs may last, if they will be permanent, and if other tariffs from other countries may hit as well. This makes any long term planning extremely difficult when it comes to a global supply chain.

[Mani59]

Hello all,

A reminder that please do not post any political posts as these will be deleted and may lead to the entire thread being deleted.

We have, for several years, prohibited the posting of any religious and political posts which you can read about here.

Thanks, Mani

[Digitalprty]

Originally Posted by Mani59

Hello all,

A reminder that please do not post any political posts as these will be deleted and may lead to the entire thread being deleted.

We have, for several years, prohibited the posting of any religious and political posts which you can read about here.

Thanks, Mani

Agreed. This thread could be useful (albeit speculative) for many on here. Debating the logistics is warranted. Debating the politics isn’t.