[XKxRome0ox]

there is blood on the streets!

what are people doing this week? or just sit tight right now?

[qba335i]

Originally Posted by BayMoWe335

Portfolio managers are worthless averaged out. They are as good at picking stocks or making “tactical shifts” as a monkey. You just don’t need them.

Bonds are a stupid investment for anyone with at least a 10 year horizon.

When the market turns lower, no one is good in general. The best advice is to keep buying.

Agreed on max 401K.

Portfolio manager (PM) controls the asset allocation (not only stock selection) And asset allocation drives the returns. As you know the industry is going away from individual stocks towards index mutual funds/etfs. The goals driven investing goes a step further and manages goals/needs vs expected returns.

Bonds serve a purpose. They reduce the overall volatility of the portfolio, provide current income and can be used as portfolio reserve.

When the market turns down (like 2008) you see the benefits of diversification. Bonds returned ~5%, gold ~5.5% and cash ~1.8% (vs -53% Emerging markets or -37% US equities). In theory this seems pretty straightforward to keep buying more when the market dips - unfortunately most people sell on the downside and never recover. PM can also manage the client and control his emotions.

As I said before, in a bull market everyone is a professional investor. It was easy to trade the US market for the last 9-10 years as we he a huge outperformance. Let's see if this will persist going forward - usually thing revert to the mean and money shifts fast.

[BayMoWe335]

Originally Posted by qba335i

Portfolio manager (PM) controls the asset allocation (not only stock selection) And asset allocation drives the returns. As you know the industry is going away from individual stocks towards index mutual funds/etfs. The goals driven investing goes a step further and manages goals/needs vs expected returns.

Bonds serve a purpose. They reduce the overall volatility of the portfolio, provide current income and can be used as portfolio reserve.

When the market turns down (like 2008) you see the benefits of diversification. Bonds returned ~5%, gold ~5.5% and cash ~1.8% (vs -53% Emerging markets or -37% US equities). In theory this seems pretty straightforward to keep buying more when the market dips - unfortunately most people sell on the downside and never recover. PM can also manage the client and control his emotions.

As I said before, in a bull market everyone is a professional investor. It was easy to trade the US market for the last 9-10 years as we he a huge outperformance. Let's see if this will persist going forward - usually thing revert to the mean and money shifts fast.

You should never “trade” the market. It doesn’t work, period. Bull markets are great, but I like bear markets too because I’m a net buyer of stocks. I get to buy more.

I know what a bond is...they are inferior to stocks. Sure, it reduces volatility, but it also produces crap returns if you have a long term horizon. There are always exceptions, but long term money you have invested needs to be in stocks. You don’t sell when markets are down...you buy more. I couldn’t care less if stocks are down 40% because I don’t sell at the bottom. They are paper losses until you sell.

I invested through 2007-2009 too. Loved it...picked up shares at better prices and rode them all the way up. Buying more as we drop here. If I need some income, I can sell a few shares here and there.

You’re making this too hard. If you never stop buying, you never lose. I buy more when stocks drop, so I like it when the market is down. No one needs a portfolio manager to execute such a basic, working strategy.

[XutvJet]

Originally Posted by qba335i

That is NOT a good financial advice.

I'm not surprised by your responses considering it's your line of work. Can't blame you; just differing opinions.

1) you should max out 401k contribution. Currently 18,500.

Why max your 401K and be stuck with the limited investment options often associated with company plans? Why not just invest to the company match (free money) and then take the remainder and fund your own Roth IRA, pay down debt, buy an affordable house in a good area? Sure, there are some tax advantages to funding a 401K to it's max, but I'd argue you're better taking the investment risk by widening your portfolio elsewhere and having more investment options.

2) you should have a diversified portfolio - that includes equities (stocks/mutual funds/ETFs), bonds, alternatives (real estate and commodities) and cash. Once you have more assets you can start adding private equity and hedge funds. Management fee vs product fee - know the difference and know what you get.

The point to this thread is focused on people just starting out, not people with large multi-million dollar portfolios that can be buying into REITs/real estate, and the like. That's what my recommendations are generally based in. Yes, you should diversify, but let's be realistic here. Just how diverse is someone going to get when they are just starting out and/or only have $500K or less investments? So you can only spread it so thin before it becomes a management problem and you lose control/focus?

My recommendation was index funds (check to your recommendation), bonds (check to your recommendation), and stocks (check to your recommendation). Cash should be implied as everyone should have a rainy day fund. First shoot for $1,000, then 3 months take home, and then 6 months take home. For "real estate", for most of us, that is buying a home. Yes, you can make an absolute killing real estate with rental properties, well thought out flips, REITs, etc., but you can also lose your a$$. I wouldn't recommend to anyone to look into real estate until they have a few million in assets AND are knowledgeable of real estate and the risks/headaches. Real estate is high on my list at the moment but I'm still feeling it out.

As someone in the investment field, I can totally see your resistance to S&P 500 index funds because they are so simple and take people like yourself completely out of the equation because there is no deep or complex investment strategy to index funds. Thing is, the data strongly supports things like the S&P 500 index fund as the way to go for the common investor (i.e., someone with sub $2M in assets). They are cheap to manage, ultra low fee, effective, simple, and wealth building in the long term (not even the best investor can beat them in the 10+ year term).

3) there is a benefit of having a portfolio manager (don't confuse with a sales oriented financial advisor who used to sell cars) as he will be able to design an optimal portfolio, monitor it and do tactical shifts. Most people don't have the skill, knowledge and time to manage money plus they make irrational decisions.

My guy at Morgan Stanley was a portfolio manager/adviser/VP. He only manages portfolios for clients with $750K+. We spent a lot of time over the years designing my portfolio to fit my age and risk tolerance. I was in all sorts of "tactical" investment tracts with much of that being actively managed. This was all based on various research and input from the Morgan Stanley investment gurus. What I learned was that tactical and actively managed means high fees. I was charged 1% annually by him plus all sorts of other little fees buried deep in the documents. After wising up and actually learning a few things on my own about how much I was really spending, I figured out I was paying about 1.5-1.75% annually Morgan Stanley which was very significant, especially over the course of 15 years and how that money could have been put to use in my investments rather than fees. I probably wouldn't have been upset by paying this if my portfolio had done better. Thing is, even after the massive market upswing after the 2008 crash, my portfolio wasn't even coming close to matching the market growth. I was getting left in the dust even as Morgan Stanley was trying to tweek things in an attempt to right the ship. In the end, I spent deep into the 6 figures for Morgan Stanley to manage my money and really got nothing in return.

Another thing I hated was that I had to go through him to make investment changes, look at things in real time, pull out cash from my money market with them, etc. Now that I manage things myself, I'm in total control and see everything in real time and can transfer cash within 24 hours.

4) everyone is a star/professional investor in a bull market. The true investing starts when the market starts moving in the opposite direction.

True, but I'll take my chances. After my personnel experience and the research I've done, I'll take my chances that my investment choices are the best for me and will work out more effectively how it did prior to me managing my own money and no middleman involved.

You're right, most people don't know squat about investing or where to start. Many are irrational and will panic at the slightest market slide. With that said, my recommendations for anyone starting out is simple as this:

READ Warren Buffet's 15 minute retirement plan, follow it, and build off of it as your wealth grows. Read his research behind it. It's all very simple to understand and is founded in REAL data.

[XutvJet]

Originally Posted by XKxRome0ox

there is blood on the streets!

what are people doing this week? or just sit tight right now?

Sit tight. This is nothing.

[qba335i]

Originally Posted by BayMoWe335

You should never "trade" the market. It doesn't work, period. Bull markets are great, but I like bear markets too because I'm a net buyer of stocks. I get to buy more.

I know what a bond is...they are inferior to stocks. Sure, it reduces volatility, but it also produces crap returns if you have a long term horizon. There are always exceptions, but long term money you have invested needs to be in stocks. You don't sell when markets are down...you buy more. I couldn't care less if stocks are down 40% because I don't sell at the bottom. They are paper losses until you sell.

I invested through 2007-2009 too. Loved it...picked up shares at better prices and rode them all the way up. Buying more as we drop here. If I need some income, I can sell a few shares here and there.

You're making this too hard. If you never stop buying, you never lose. I buy more when stocks drop, so I like it when the market is down. No one needs a portfolio manager to execute such a basic, working strategy.

Trading the market works when we consider tactical shifts. I work for a major firm and we offer both strategic and tactical asset allocations. There are times when you want to reduce risk and there are times when you want to increase risk. Having 100% of assets in SPX is not prudent.

For equities: do you only invest in US or also add international and emerging? Growth vs value? What sectors? Large or small cap? Maybe factor based? There are a lot of considerations when we talk about optimal portfolio.

[BayMoWe335]

Originally Posted by qba335i

Trading the market works when we consider tactical shifts. I work for a major firm and we offer both strategic and tactical asset allocations. There are times when you want to reduce risk and there are times when you want to increase risk. Having 100% of assets in SPX is not prudent.

For equities: do you only invest in US or also add international and emerging? Growth vs value? What sectors? Large or small cap? Maybe factor based? There are a lot of considerations when we talk about optimal portfolio.

For the long term, it is prudent. The optimal portfolio is one invested in a low cost S&P500 index, reinvesting dividends. It will beat 99% of actively managed funds and anyone trying to pick stocks, reblance, reduce risk, etc.

When you try to "reduce risk" you are trying to time the market. You will underperform, period. They all do.

Why do you think Warren Buffet bet any hedge fund willing to take him up on it that the S&P500 will outperform their actively managed fund? Because it will over the long term and he was right, btw.

The S&P500 gained 125.8% over ten years. The five hedge funds, picked by a firm called Protégé Partners, added an average of about 36%.

There are people who can do it, but your chances of finding that person are essentially 0. Also, when that person is found, money tends to flow to them and they eventually underperform too.

[sspade]

Lots of good info on here and much wiser investors, Im sure.

That being said... I CAN PRETTY MUCH GURANTEE YOU WILL MAKE MONEY...

Buying into ACB as soon as possible. Im holding 1500 shares and am upside down currently but recommend doing a bit or research and making an educated decision for yourself!

Whats the worst that could happen. Really? If someone has insight, please share.

[rad doc]

Originally Posted by BayMoWe335

For the long term, it is prudent. The optimal portfolio is one invested in a low cost S&P500 index, reinvesting dividends. It will beat 99% of actively managed funds and anyone trying to pick stocks, reblance, reduce risk, etc.

When you try to "reduce risk" you are trying to time the market. You will underperform, period. They all do.

Why do you think Warren Buffet bet any hedge fund willing to take him up on it that the S&P500 will outperform their actively managed fund? Because it will over the long term and he was right, btw.

The S&P500 gained 125.8% over ten years. The five hedge funds, picked by a firm called Protégé Partners, added an average of about 36%.

There are people who can do it, but your chances of finding that person are essentially 0. Also, when that person is found, money tends to flow to them and they eventually underperform too.

I will say it again. A globally diversified portfolio with additional diversification amongst asset classes utilizing low cost index funds will outperform the s&p over time. Hit the major indexes. Look up Callan periodic table.

[XutvJet]

Originally Posted by BayMoWe335

For the long term, it is prudent. The optimal portfolio is one invested in a low cost S&P500 index, reinvesting dividends. It will beat 99% of actively managed funds and anyone trying to pick stocks, reblance, reduce risk, etc.

When you try to "reduce risk" you are trying to time the market. You will underperform, period. They all do.

Why do you think Warren Buffet bet any hedge fund willing to take him up on it that the S&P500 will outperform their actively managed fund? Because it will over the long term and he was right, btw.

The S&P500 gained 125.8% over ten years. The five hedge funds, picked by a firm called Protégé Partners, added an average of about 36%.

There are people who can do it, but your chances of finding that person are essentially 0. Also, when that person is found, money tends to flow to them and they eventually underperform too.

Thank you.

[qba335i]

Originally Posted by BayMoWe335

For the long term, it is prudent. The optimal portfolio is one invested in a low cost S&P500 index, reinvesting dividends. It will beat 99% of actively managed funds and anyone trying to pick stocks, reblance, reduce risk, etc.

When you try to "reduce risk" you are trying to time the market. You will underperform, period. They all do.

Why do you think Warren Buffet bet any hedge fund willing to take him up on it that the S&P500 will outperform their actively managed fund? Because it will over the long term and he was right, btw.

The S&P500 gained 125.8% over ten years. The five hedge funds, picked by a firm called Protégé Partners, added an average of about 36%.

There are people who can do it, but your chances of finding that person are essentially 0. Also, when that person is found, money tends to flow to them and they eventually underperform too.

Not exactly... let's look at actual data vs your opinion.

1) 20 years ending Sept 2018:
Mid cap, small cap, real estate and emerging outperformed large cap (S&500)

2) now let's look at a diversified portfolio => ending value of $1 invested 12/1990 through Sept 2018. Maintaining the same risk premium:

- 100% of portfolio invested in Large Cap => $16.51
- 62%LC/1%Bonds/18% Mid cap/4% small cap/15% reits => $18.99

Buffet returned -32% in 2008. He would have to close his shop if he managed a hedge fund. I know some ABS hedge funds that make the S&P 500 look like a bond fund - when you look at total returns since 2008/2009.

[BayMoWe335]

Originally Posted by qba335i

Not exactly... let's look at actual data vs your opinion.

1) 20 years ending Sept 2018:
Mid cap, small cap, real estate and emerging outperformed large cap (S&500)

2) now let's look at a diversified portfolio => ending value of $1 invested 12/1990 through Sept 2018. Maintaining the same risk premium:

- 100% of portfolio invested in Large Cap => $16.51
- 62%LC/1%Bonds/18% Mid cap/4% small cap/15% reits => $18.99

Buffet returned -32% in 2008. He would have to close his shop if he managed a hedge fund. I know some ABS hedge funds that make the S&P 500 look like a bond fund - when you look at total returns since 2008/2009.

Returns for 1 year don't matter. The exercise was done for a 10 year period, which is about the shortest period that makes sense when you're investing long term.

And your data is fine...but you don't need a PM to do it. I don't have any problem with other index funds, including small, mid and large cap. I'm saying that for the general investor, they don't need a PM to help them buy the S&P500 and other index funds...and essentially all you need to beat most pros is consistent buying of ONE index fund (S&P500). I'm keeping this simple since it's a beginner's advice thread.

You also proved by point that bonds are terrible investments for long term investors.

[XutvJet]

Originally Posted by qba335i

Buffet returned -32% in 2008. He would have to close his shop if he managed a hedge fund. I know some ABS hedge funds that make the S&P 500 look like a bond fund - when you look at total returns since 2008/2009.

Again, we're talking about averages and likelihood. For a small peanuts investor (i.e. $2M or less in investments), stick to what is most likely to work in the long term.

With that said, let's also not forget that 95%+ in the country have less than $50K in assets/investments/cash so why are we even arguing about this I have many 40 something y/or friends with $100-250K/yr paying jobs, nice hours, expensive cars, boats, motorcycles, expensive hobbies, eating out all the time, etc. and next to nothing in investments and savings. So dangerous, but that's a reality for most in this country regardless of income level. Live beyond your means and YOLO.

[BMW F22]

Originally Posted by XKxRome0ox

which one are you going with?

Bought some shares of NVIDIA. Had a high of almost $300 in September. Market has been tanking so it dropped about 50%. Figured it will go up eventually (just like Amazon shares back in the late 90’s). I’m in it for the long haul baby!!

[qba335i]

Originally Posted by BayMoWe335

Returns for 1 year don't matter. The exercise was done for a 10 year period, which is about the shortest period that makes sense when you're investing long term.

And your data is fine...but you don't need a PM to do it. I don't have any problem with other index funds, including small, mid and large cap. I'm saying that for the general investor, they don't need a PM to help them buy the S&P500 and other index funds...and essentially all you need to beat most pros is consistent buying of ONE index fund (S&P500). I'm keeping this simple since it's a beginner's advice thread.

You also proved by point that bonds are terrible investments for long term investors.

Again - Not exactly... let's look at actual data vs your opinion.

Data set: 10 year returns - data 01/1950 - 09/2018

1) 100% stocks (S&P500)
Average return: 10.04%
Average loss: -1.2%

2) 90% stocks + 10% bonds
Average return: 10.00%
Average loss: -0.9%

As you see you get basically the same return with lower risk. You want to design a portfolio that will provide the highest return per unit of risk.

[BayMoWe335]

Originally Posted by qba335i

Again - Not exactly... let's look at actual data vs your opinion.

Data set: 10 year returns - data 01/1950 - 09/2018

1) 100% stocks (S&P500)
Average return: 10.04%
Average loss: -1.2%

2) 90% stocks + 10% bonds
Average return: 10.00%
Average loss: -0.9%

As you see you get basically the same return with lower risk. You want to design a portfolio that will provide the highest return per unit of risk.

I'm too lazy to look it up, but I'll take your word for it. What is the total return since 1950 for that scenario?

More broadly, again, you're still better off not paying anyone to do anything for you and just buying stock index funds over a lifetime. If you want to do 10% bonds, that won't kill you...but stocks are overwhelmingly the best choice for long term investors.

Equities over a lifetime will outperform the bonds, so even a 10% bond mix is going to be a drag versus 100% equities. Not sure what the detail is in your data.

[XKxRome0ox]

i dabbled in a few call options
probably just throwing away money
but i did want to see how it works in real time
i have a few cheap ones that expire on Black Friday

being that it's a half day for the market, i should wake up early to make sure i can close out my position (is that what it's called?) in case the call options make it into the money

[XKxRome0ox]

the market is on a roll
I am finally back in the positive after being down about 5% of the total portfolio value for almost a month

I dabbled in some options
threw away $10 on 3 short term calls to just see what happens
they all expired worthless

then bought DBX call, spent $15 and sold for $45
and AMD call, spent $33 and sold for $75
felt like a total badass
but I only purchased 1 contract each so it isn't like get rich money

[JustinHEMI]

I haven't read the entire thread, but some things I've learned over my adult working career (I'm 43 now);

1) Start early. That's cliché at this point but it's so true and often looked over. I joined the Navy when I was 23, and started contributing 600/month to their version of a 401K at 25. I've continued to increase my contribution ever since, and the magic of compounding is real. My sister, on the other hand, is 32ish, and hasn't started anything yet, all while making a lot of money as a travel nurse. Every year she waits, the less prepared she'll be at retirement.

2) I'm never going to be good enough or have the time to spend to become good enough to time the market, therefore I subscribe to the John Bogle method of investing. My 401K is a simple 3 fund portfolio designed to minimize fees, expenses, and taxes. I carry the premium class of Fidelity's total market index, total international market index, and total bond market index, and I use their Brokeragelink so all my trades are free and now those funds are essentially free. I recommend reading Bogle's book about investing to at least learn how much money you lose in fees and expense. Maybe you're lucky enough to be one of the rare people that can time the market, but I'm not one of them, and this method of investing is simple and as long as the market continues to deliver its historic performance, my nest egg is going to be tremendous. It also maximizes diversification.

3) Take advantage of the "mega backdoor roth IRA" as soon as you can. As my income has advanced, I've been fortunate enough to be able to contribute the full 55K/year to my 401K. Anything after 18500 (2018) is after tax contributions. I then roll those after tax contributions to a roth IRA so that now that money is growing tax free. I'm "incomed out" of contributing to a roth via the traditional means, so this "mega backdoor roth" is a fantastic vehicle which is also now recognized by the IRS. It was called "backdoor" because it was taking advantage of tax loopholes, but now the IRS fully supports it.

4) Pay yourself first. This is why I'm just now going to buy my first BMW. I decided that I wanted to ensure I was preparing for the future before partaking in luxuries. I have no need for an M2, but I have a want, and now the means without impacting my savings to have one. Also pay yourself first by ensuring your savings take priority over your bills. Of course, this requires discipline. If you live paycheck to paycheck, you probably need to reevaluate your spending habits.


I was lucky to grow up with a bad example of how to manage money by watching my parents go through many boom/bust cycles. Growing up poor due to mismanagement of money makes you not want to be poor as an adult, so I simply didn't follow in their footsteps. To this day, they still mismanage their money and my mother will end up having to work until she dies.

I don't want that.

Start early, maximize, simplify. That's basically my strategy. Sure, there are some that find magical ways of making 30%/year, but that's not me. I'm content with standard market growth in my simple portfolio. I am going to look into investing in real estate now as well.

[XKxRome0ox]

everyone and their mama excited about the market rallying tomorrow

in my limited experience, i'm going to stay cautious
it can't be that easy and straightforward, can it?

[jgoens]

Originally Posted by XKxRome0ox

everyone and their mama excited about the market rallying tomorrow

in my limited experience, i'm going to stay cautious
it can't be that easy and straightforward, can it?

Should be pretty good. Just saw this thread. I have been spending a lot of time lately on the stocktwits forum..great chatter. Might want to put on your watchlist this week: NLST and OGEN.

[jgoens]

Originally Posted by sspade

Lots of good info on here and much wiser investors, Im sure.

That being said... I CAN PRETTY MUCH GURANTEE YOU WILL MAKE MONEY...

Buying into ACB as soon as possible. Im holding 1500 shares and am upside down currently but recommend doing a bit or research and making an educated decision for yourself!

Whats the worst that could happen. Really? If someone has insight, please share.

Along these lines NBEV has been something people are watching.