[Ctothej]

Let's work some numbers

175000 running at assumed 60% capacity in 2023 (reading online it was running at 40% capacity in 2021 and theres been an investment of 125m since to include 2 series models being produced at this plant, along with a 25% increase in capacity going from 40% to 50%. The other 10% of capacity could be driven by the M2 and taking capacity to 60% in 2023 when production commences. Also assuming total capacity of 175000 remains unchanged for now. New hires at 800 set to commence in January and I presume these are specifically for the M2).

~50000 x 3 series models were built at this plant every year (based on bmw having built 170000 3 series between 2019 and 2022 and trying to adjust for non-full years included in the 2019-2022 range). I presume the remaining cars built in 2022 at 50% capacity were the M240i (35000).

Based on the 60% capacity assumption for 2023, capacity at this plan increases to 105000 annually. Factoring in reduced demand due to inflation and rising interest rates, if they reduced production to 95000 cars this could comprise of 45000 x 3 series. 25000 M240i and 25000 M2. You could argue we could get 30000 M2 and 20000 M240i based on demand moving so let's go with the latter.

So 30000 M2s built annually.

As of 2017, there were 4400 dealers globally. Depending on how you believe the market has played out for them, there's either 4000 now or 5000. I think 5000 is more likely, cut back to 4800 due to the current market conditions.

Which leaves us with an average of 6.25 (5-7 is a safe bet) per dealer for 4800 dealers if 30000 M2s are being produced annually.

Where this could be off is if there are other models built at this plant I haven't factored in or if there's considerably more dealers now than estimated given the 4400 number is from 5 years ago but I reckon it's a decent estimate.

[Rx-7ames]

Originally Posted by KevinC

I would prefer to do business with a dealer who operates this way. What are they going to do with a deposit for a car that can't even be ordered yet? Make an advance yacht payment on the owner's massive yacht? IMHO dealers should just make a list and once the car is actually orderable, call everyone and whoever ponies up their deposits gets their order placed, in the order the deposits are received. THAT is when you negotiate your deal as well.

This is how my dealership operates. We only take deposits after we get an allocation and the order is placed. Until then you are just in the order bank. We have orders for a few M2s and we are not holding any deposits.

[Rx-7ames]

Originally Posted by Ctothej

So 30000 M2s built annually.

This seems extremely optimistic. There were only 60k M2s built on the entire previous run. I don't think they would do 30k in the first year with production numbers generally being much lower.

[T_U_D]

Originally Posted by Rx-7ames

This seems extremely optimistic. There were only 60k M2s built on the entire previous run. I don't think they would do 30k in the first year with production numbers generally being much lower.

And… the F87 only had a model year run of six years. MY ‘16-‘21. So, approximately 10k annually +/-.

[Ctothej]

Originally Posted by Rx-7ames

This seems extremely optimistic. There were only 60k M2s built on the entire previous run. I don't think they would do 30k in the first year with production numbers generally being much lower.

Entirely possible. The 30k could make up an allocation of X3 and any other cars BMW wants to make at this plant, but they are hiring 800 more employees to commence in January so it's very likely atleast for the first year that we will see more than 10k units. 15-20k I'd say. This number is factoring in global demand. Recession next year could drive this down.

The mexico plant is also increasing capability for production of EV cars so I'm sure we'll see this sooner rather than later.

[T_U_D]

Originally Posted by Ctothej

Entirely possible. The 30k could make up an allocation of X3 and any other cars BMW wants to make at this plant, but they are hiring 800 more employees to commence in January so it's very likely atleast for the first year that we will see more than 10k units. 15-20k I'd say. This number is factoring in global demand. Recession next year could drive this down.

The mexico plant is also increasing capability for production of EV cars so I'm sure we'll see this sooner rather than later.

M production in general is greatly lower than non-M.

Plant Mexico has a significant amount of automation, which requires less workforce than other BMW manufacturing facilities. Plant Mexico will never have the workforce of a facility like Plant Spartanburg, which is also BMW’s largest manufacturing facility in the world. It is also highly doubtful that Plant Mexico will ever have a workforce size comparable to one of its German counterparts.

[Ctothej]

Originally Posted by T_U_D

M production in general is greatly lower than non-M.

Plant Mexico has a significant amount of automation, which requires less workforce than other BMW manufacturing facilities. Plant Mexico will never have the workforce of a facility like Plant Spartanburg, which is also BMW’s largest manufacturing facility in the world. It is also highly doubtful that Plant Mexico will ever have a workforce size comparable to one of its German counterparts.

Agreed. But they are currently pushing our 1500 cars daily with a workforce of 11000. With the 800 increase they'll push out roughly 105 more on a daily basis. Let's round this down to 90 given its not a direct correlation. On a 260 day per working year basis that's 23400 more cars. Hence my suggestion of 15-20k M2s. 30k definitely too much of a stretch. But they can push out 30k more cars across their range if they have the demand for it.

[bangerman15]

Originally Posted by Biimmer

I have a feeling that they are going to crank these bad boys out!

I believe so as well. Partially because I’m in the teens on my dealer’s wait list, but it just makes sense they’re going to pump them out at this new factory. Just want to know allocation already so I have an idea how long I’ll have to wait!

[zero21]

Originally Posted by Ctothej

Insane if true!

Yesterday when I got my order in, they confirmed as an M Performance Dealer they were expecting 5-6 for the whole year. I'm number three and was told June-August 😶

[zero21]

Originally Posted by Albator_IIII

"Some" encouragement here, I guess. The dealer I am 4th seems to be a biggish M dealer. Thing is, they do not want to take deposit until they can enter the order in the system. I worry they will slap an ADM despite verbal and email agreement to do MSRP.

My dealer had me sign a quote for the price with no ADM, but they did tack on 2k worth of questionable items: $700 window tint, $200 nitrogen filled tires, etc. My 65400 M2 ended up at 68800 when it was all said and done. Wait, dealer sale fee was $500 - so I guess I got a markup.

I laughed at all this, because at the end of the day, I put in an order for a car I haven't driven, based on buttloads of assumptions. $500-2k should not be an issue if you're looking at a 66k car. It is what it is.

My 5k deposit will be charged when there is a production number as well.

[Skooba1231]

Originally Posted by Albator_IIII

"Some" encouragement here, I guess. The dealer I am 4th seems to be a biggish M dealer. Thing is, they do not want to take deposit until they can enter the order in the system. I worry they will slap an ADM despite verbal and email agreement to do MSRP.

1st at an M authorized dealership, my order is in at MSRP, they’ll take a deposit once allocation hits and it goes into production.

[Sethhboii]

Originally Posted by bangerman15

I believe so as well. Partially because I’m in the teens on my dealer’s wait list, but it just makes sense they’re going to pump them out at this new factory. Just want to know allocation already so I have an idea how long I’ll have to wait!

Bro, I think you're gonna have to wait a year if you're in the teens. That's my gut feeling.

[Szlachta05]

Originally Posted by T_U_D

Unrelated given that this is not the departure port for the G87, but it is BMW related and the vehicles produced at SLP are seeing shipping delays as well.

From Teslas to BMWs, cars are piling up on land and at sea in German port of Bremerhaven

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/07/from...rman-port.html

I got to experience this first hand when I imported my 2 series from the US into Germany. Due to lots of issues out of my control, it took about 6 months to get the car over. About two of that was the car sitting in the port.

[T_U_D]

Originally Posted by Szlachta05

I got to experience this first hand when I imported my 2 series from the US into Germany. Due to lots of issues out of my control, it took about 6 months to get the car over. About two of that was the car sitting in the port.

Ugh!

[Xspeedracer]

More time to save a bigger down payment 🙂

[Rx-7ames]

Originally Posted by Xspeedracer

More time to save a bigger down payment 🙂

This is actually what I'm hopping for. I've never purchased a car that costs more than 16k. This is a big step for me!