[M_Power Rob]

Originally Posted by techwhiz1

Well, I did start drinking more bourbon and other whiskeys. Found some I really like.
The Costco stuff from Bartons (Bottled in Bond, Small Batch and Single Barrel) turns out to be really good.

Check this place out (if you join, you get special/limited offers). Great ownership and staff and Blake is one of the most knowledgeable bourbon/rye guys around.

https://seelbachs.com/

[BgsDks]

Originally Posted by Squidget

To compete, a company either uses cheap labor, or replaces labor with machinery. So even if you bully a company into building a factory in the US, they'll just do what every manufacturer does: build a massively automated system with some highly skilled technical workers and relatively few blue collar jobs.

Isn’t that what BMW does in South Carolina? And the robots will ultimately take over those few blue collar

[c63er]

Tariffs question (yes or no) creates economic uncertainty.

Economic uncertainty pushes companies and people to make short sighted decisions.

Short sighted decisions always stunt growth.

The question has never been about tariffs but how can uncertainty be created in everyone lives. Uncertainty leads to short term/bad decision making and thus you can never grow thus you make more of those decisions leading you to ultimately lose. That is and continues to be the goal. Copy/paste this trend to every other political statement (on every side) and the picture should be clear. You and many companies are simply products that need to be economically moved from one checker spot to another. Simple as that.

Expect to see more ///M logos plastered all over non-M bmws

[Lagunatic]

Appreciate the well-mannered discussion. Was a good coffee read this morning.

[ScottyRyan2019]

Originally Posted by Lagunatic

Appreciate the well-mannered discussion. Was a good coffee read this morning.

💯💯. Could have easily gone downhill. I remember some of those discussions back in the day....

[BradMX5]

This doesn’t feel like a car forum.
Not enough cursing and name calling.

[ScottyRyan2019]

Originally Posted by BradMX5

This doesn’t feel like a car forum.
Not enough cursing and name calling.

I think black wheels look best on tariffs.

[BroDoze]

Originally Posted by ScottyRyan2019

I think black wheels look best on tariffs.

Anthracite > Gunmetal > Frozen Black > Black > Silver

/thread

[mrdudley]

Originally Posted by Dave07997S

BMW is a foreign auto maker. It wouldn't apply to them. The tariffs are for US automakers who shift production to overseas and then resell the vehicle in the US. There are also waivers that can be had. I feel this is a non issue.

If it only targeted US automakers, that would absolutely crater the US auto industry because they’d have a cost disadvantage in their largest market.

[Squidget]

Originally Posted by BgsDks

Isn’t that what BMW does in South Carolina? And the robots will ultimately take over those few blue collar

It's what EVERYONE does in the US, from Carrier to Harley Davidson. Any corp who claims different is either lying, secretly planning to offshore, or will be out of business soon.

US unskilled labor is globally non-competitive on cost. I mean it just IS, that's just what happens in a country with a high standard of living. Why pretend otherwise, it's a consequence of success.

Instead, US manufacturing is strong because it excels at the advanced stuff: R&D, infrastructure, capital markets, automation, a highly skilled technical work force.

And yes, this leaves unskilled workers behind, and that's a huge problem and I have no idea how we really fix it. But tariffs definitely won't fix it.

[techwhiz1]

Originally Posted by Squidget

It's what EVERYONE does in the US, from Carrier to Harley Davidson. Any corp who claims different is either lying, secretly planning to offshore, or will be out of business soon.

US unskilled labor is globally non-competitive on cost. I mean it just IS, that's just what happens in a country with a high standard of living. Why pretend otherwise, it's a consequence of success.

Instead, US manufacturing is strong because it excels at the advanced stuff: R&D, infrastructure, capital markets, automation, a highly skilled technical work force.

And yes, this leaves unskilled workers behind, and that's a huge problem and I have no idea how we really fix it. But tariffs definitely won't fix it.

This is 100%

Robots build the stuff, now we need robot maintenance techs which is a higher skill level than an assembly worker.

I was at a GM assembly plant decades ago during the change to robotics.

The bottom line is that low skill repetitive jobs get eliminated. If it takes 2 weeks to train a person to do a job, any job; that position is not secure and won't pay a living wage.

The longer it takes to train to do a job the more money that person can demand.
Exactly why a truck driver makes more than a fast food worker.
Why an accountant makes more that a truck driver and a doctor makes more than the accountant.

Tariffs aren't going to fix the problem of minimum wage not being a living wage and it's not going to make the car market more competitive.

As far as EVs go, GM is doing well with their new platforms along with others. Cheap Chinese imports aren't good for anyone, but that's different than a tariff on anything made in Mexico or Canada.

Some things are coming back like a new semiconductor Fabs, but once up and running they don't take thatany people since it's mostly robotic.

[Bret]

One thing that's been left out of this discussion is illegal immigration and the drug cartels. Trump wants to financially incentivize Mexico to stop the flow of illegal immigrants and drugs through Mexico. The Mexican government is currently suffering no consequences for its inaction. If the Mexican government sees that it's in the financial interest to stop both, they probably will.

Originally Posted by mks

Again, not an expert in this field but the recent use of tariffs, ostensibly strategic and within the US national interest, doesn’t seem to be able to create the intended effect.

I'm going to have to disagree with you to some extent. I am an owner of a manufacturing company that imports over 1,000 different chemicals from all over the world. Before Trump took office, China was our source for the vast majority of chemicals. Now, we only import a small portion of our chemicals from China due to the changes in prices brought about by the tariffs. Manufacturers from other places throughout the world have grown to fill the void. The good thing is that the vast majority of them are in countries that are not hostile to the US.

Originally Posted by Dave07997S

There are also waivers that can be had.

This is exactly what happened for chemicals that are only produced in China.

[mks]

Originally Posted by Bret

One thing that's been left out of this discussion is illegal immigration and the drug cartels. Trump wants to financially incentivize Mexico to stop the flow of illegal immigrants and drugs through Mexico. The Mexican government is currently suffering no consequences for its inaction. If the Mexican government sees that it's in the financial interest to stop both, they probably will.

The way the argument is framed, it appears there's a big "if" in the proposition: if it's in Mexico's financial interest, would they yield to US interests? I might suggest there is no "if." How much is US willing to risk by threatening Mexico's solvency? I might ask Ford or BMW. While there may be disagreement about the subject, tariffs are ostensibly designed to induce this kind of political goal. However, the discussion as it's been advanced in this thread raises the question of 1) the effectiveness of a tariff's utility toward this type of end and 2) who does the imposition of such a tax actually impact. What if the punitive effort of the US was to impose a 60% tariff on a "widget" for an electronic device (in a pace maker) or air conditioners (largely marketed to people in the southwest region) in exchange for more of Mexico's cooperation? A retailer importing those items is going to look to offset its cost, which historically gets levied on the consumer. Mexico's and/or its companies may yield, may find other markets, etc. Which brings us to you first hand experience below.

Originally Posted by Bret

I'm going to have to disagree with you to some extent. I am an owner of a manufacturing company that imports over 1,000 different chemicals from all over the world. Before Trump took office, China was our source for the vast majority of chemicals. Now, we only import a small portion of our chemicals from China due to the changes in prices brought about by the tariffs. Manufacturers from other places throughout the world have grown to fill the void. The good thing is that the vast majority of them are in countries that are not hostile to the US.

Yeh, I concede your point--and good to have an first-hand example. However, historically, what you've described is more a sequel to or corollary of the impact of a tariff. This is opportunism operating naturally within the markets. China also likely countered/retaliated with a tariff of its own or through some other instrument. ADDITION: China (along with a whole host of other countries) has already figured out that it can move products and infrastructure to Mexico and trade through the USMCA simply by qualifying its wares under the agreement. So, some who have stopped importing from China directly, may in fact be indirectly importing their stuff from China via Mexico. China has doubled its exports to the US since ~2020 through this path (almost $4B worth). END ADD. However, while the tariff may have yielded some benefit to you/your company (and presumably your clients/customers), it may not have changed China's behavior in the way the US intended. There are likely many anecdotal examples of the ostensible success of a tariff (maybe not in open/global markets) within the larger practice of imposing them; however, on the whole, they tend not to be effective as an instrument of national power (diplomatic, informational, military, economic, financial, intelligence, and law enforcement (DIME-FIL) activities). Certainly not in an economy as robust/global as China's. Really, they're kinda wimpy as instrument of power/influence...but they can be made to sound tough.

I also concede that I do not have your expertise or experience. I'm not a business owner. I did spend a career in the military learning about US national security policy and practice. And, because I'm an old English major and, now, a retired guy, I read quite a bit.

[Mhrob24]

I was excited about his proposal to make car loan interest tax deductible….until I read this morning it’s only for domestic car loans

😐

[BgsDks]

Originally Posted by Squidget

.

US unskilled labor is globally non-competitive on cost.

And yes, this leaves unskilled workers behind, and that's a huge problem and I have no idea how we really fix it. But tariffs definitely won't fix it.

Mass deportation

[Squidget]

Originally Posted by BgsDks

Mass deportation

Deporting low-skilled workers solves nothing, and also is quite illegal since the low-skill workers we are talking about are US citizens.

[JABCAT]

Originally Posted by Squidget

Deporting low-skilled workers solves nothing, and also is quite illegal since the low-skill workers we are talking about are US citizens.

Exactly, plus many of those he wants to deport probably have more skills than the vast majority of uneducated, lazy Americans.

[Ronin76]

This thread is no longer making me feel better for some reason. Maybe have to look at some other options just in case

[Handschalter]

If my ordered Z4 arrives during a time when there is a NEW tariff and I cancel my order due to the price increase, do you think I will bet my $500 deposit back? My build week is #49 (early DEC2024)

[Ronin76]

Originally Posted by Handschalter

If my ordered Z4 arrives during a time when there is a NEW tariff and I cancel my order due to the price increase, do you think I will bet my $500 deposit back? My build week is #49 (early DEC2024)

I think of the Z4 is not built in Mexico, like the M2, you should not have to worry.

Please note tariffs even on the M2 is just speculation. Don’t know for sure. That’s why the tread was started

[c1pher]

Let’s say this passes. First, the idea was that tariffs would replace taxes. So in some sense you’re really paying a consumption tax then. But there is a level at which people can’t just pay twice as much for an imported car, so if cars sit, supply and demand take over. And if you think BMW is losing money selling cars built in Mexico and has no room to move prices down, then you really don’t know how bad we’ve been getting fleeced in the car market, particularly the past four years.

[Ronin76]

Originally Posted by Handschalter

"The president-elect has said he wants to impose a 10% tariff on all non-US goods, and also indicated last month that he was considering targeting German cars. At a campaign rally in Savannah, Georgia, he said: “I want German car companies to become American car companies. I want them to build their plants here.” https://www.theguardian.com/business/2024/nov/06/german-carmakers-shares-slump-fear-trump-tariffs

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