06-16-2022, 02:36 PM | #7063 | |
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06-16-2022, 04:22 PM | #7064 | |
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The sentiment now is that the FED is basically trying to destroy the economy... buddy let me tell you something... if 1.5 points over a few months destroys the economy... we have been skating on ice that wouldn't have been fit for ants.
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06-16-2022, 04:48 PM | #7065 | |
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The Fed is required to control inflation to the extent they can; it's literally their charter. They can't just sit on their hands when inflation is busting through 8%. So, they must do something to destroy demand, and raising interest rates will do that. The current target rate, which is what is driving the market (remember, forward looking), is 3.8%, not 1.5%. That's expected to be reached next spring. Unfortunately for the Fed they waited too long and now they're raising into an economy that's slowing because of the price shock oil has delivered. That's why the concern about stagflation. |
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06-16-2022, 05:08 PM | #7066 | |
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06-16-2022, 05:54 PM | #7067 | |
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06-16-2022, 10:40 PM | #7068 | ||
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Working my way back to 10 percent cash in investment accounts |
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06-17-2022, 07:56 AM | #7069 | |
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I was talking with a coworker about this yesterday, and he said that we are headed for, or are already in a recession. I know a lot of people say that. My reply was that no, we are not. We have some inflation, no argument there (although you can argue about the causes, plural) but I think the economy is still strong, hiring is still strong, and it's really just a shortage of some things and the ridiculous increase in oil & gas that are making people hurt. Most of us here, BMW owners, are probably doing OK. But I really feel for the folks who live paycheck to paycheck, and can't handle a 50% increase in their rent or a doubling of their gas bill, on top of food prices and all that. Of course, those folks, typically, are not big stock market investors. I do not know when the market will hit bottom. We keep going through support levels. All I know is that I keep on buying until I run out of cash, which is going to happen soon at this rate if I keep buying the dips.
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06-18-2022, 05:53 AM | #7070 |
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Anyone buying crypto on the dip? I added a small amt to my bitcoin position. May add more if it keeps falling.
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06-18-2022, 09:17 AM | #7071 | |
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The stock market is not the economy. |
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06-18-2022, 01:26 PM | #7075 | |
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To wit. Job growth peaked in December and has been dropping all year; in May it was only 128,000 according to ADP. There were a lot of layoffs last month and it continues this month. Numerous tech firms have cut staff or frozen hiring, the mortgage industry is reeling, used car companies are scaling back, and even manufacturing companies are starting to cut back. The crypto kiddies have gotten hammered and while that won't kill the economy wrti large, it'll have local effects where there's a concentration of people invested and in crypto. In the crypto hub of Miami (where their self-minted Miami coin is now almost worthless), they're seeing dislocations already. Those people who have lost their jobs will absolutely not be spending money. Vacations will not be taken, cars will not be purchased, homes and all the things in them will have to wait. In the locales where those people live (thousands in SF, for example), that means jobs that are dependent on them will start to bleed off. The people that those who've lost their jobs live and (used to) work with will start to fret about their own situations and cut back their spending. Consumer sentiment is already at its lowest point in a decade, and seeing that around you is just going to make it worse. My point is that once that snowball starts rolling downhill it picks up steam and grows very quickly. Like the market, it can be "elevator down, escalator up." |
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06-18-2022, 01:50 PM | #7076 | |||
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06-18-2022, 03:49 PM | #7077 |
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Buttcoin continuing the tumble... interesting... in a time of uncertainty, it's the thing that literally should skyrocketing... oh well, a scam is always a scam...someone left holding the bag.
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06-18-2022, 03:55 PM | #7078 | |
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1) Tech or massively overvalued / overstaffed companies that never made sense 2) Companies directly affected by Interest rates - i.e. the loan / mortgage / real estate services 3) manufacturing layoffs are imho just bad business practices... stellantis is a joke more than a legit car manufacturer that has no idea how to run a legit business... check stellantis stock over 1 year
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06-18-2022, 04:12 PM | #7079 | ||
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I am going to bet some layoffs and freezes (and soft freezes) are happening at more traditional companies too. Or could happen if the trend continues. |
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06-18-2022, 10:20 PM | #7080 |
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...or hiring to support record levels of sales in companies participating in the real economy.
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06-19-2022, 11:17 AM | #7081 |
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I am officially a 'bag holder.' I can't sell now however. Holding on...oh well. You live & you learn
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06-19-2022, 03:40 PM | #7082 | |
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I also think that’s a good thing in the long run.
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06-19-2022, 04:34 PM | #7083 | |
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That is, of course, unachievable, overly simplistic, and everyone, including WB, has lost money; it's unavoidable if you're investing. BUT, what it does mean, in practice, is that you have to very carefully husband your capital. So, if you're going to lose, lose a little, not a lot, and certainly not everything. And as long as you still have something, you CAN sell, no matter how painful. I learned that the hard way myself. Now, I keep three things in mind when I invest:
Not sure if that's useful, but I've been in the market 40 years, have learned a few things along the way, and thought I'd share. |
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06-20-2022, 07:44 AM | #7084 |
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Anybody own BMW stock? It is listed in Nasdaq.
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