[DrVenture]

Originally Posted by ASAP

thats why i say show both... one could make the same arguement for unemployment and money supply metrics for the past few years which were also adjusted or shown differently

The numbers you cite are not being changed to get a desired outcome. You need to provide proof of that assertion. Something more than merely repeating "revisions', like it is a bad thing. Or suggesting there is something nefarious about posting preliminaries and updating as more data is acquired.

Putting preliminary numbers out there as soon as possible is a good thing, Making corrections as more data is confirmed and validated is a good thing. Holding back this sort of data for months, to get it absolutely perfect, is not a better solution.

[DrVenture]

IRT, removing government spending from GDP. Have a look.

https://www.cato.org/blog/keep-polit...p-calculations

https://www.axios.com/2025/03/03/gdp...nment-spending

https://apnews.com/article/trump-gdp...4620bfd66923b2

[Artemis]

NO politics - NO crypto investment talks (way too many 'pig butchering scam' criminals roaming internet forums for victims these days)

[ASAP]

Originally Posted by DrVenture

IRT, removing government spending from GDP. Have a look.

https://www.cato.org/blog/keep-politics-out-gdp-calculations

https://www.axios.com/2025/03/03/gdp-trump-musk-government-spending

https://apnews.com/article/trump-gdp-economy-government-spending-lutnick-7414ba1bd441bd4bf64620bfd66923b2

again i say... show both... gdp w and gdp without...

as far as metrics... peoples poor understanding of unemployment and underemployment to show a full picture if what been happening is a prime example... you need to see both to see the whole equation

revisions to employment are completely acceptable if within a few % points..not thousands of jobs... i work in lets say a sector of finance and if i made a revision like that, i'd be cooked...

[Mech Spec]

You seem to be of the notion that one can just "shut off" the government portion of the GDP calculation.

You can not, at least not truthfully, it would be making up the number.

So you would have to find a different metric that only accounts for private businesses. But that is stupid as all get out because you are ignoring a substantial part of the economy.

But all of this comes from the fact that some folks are grooming their news bubbles to be skeptical when gdp tanks. The entire discussion of the past few posts is happening because you were made to believe that gdp is somehow a flawed metric when it actually isnt.

[Mech Spec]

Trying to take government spending out of gdp is like trying to weigh yourself by measuring the weight of every one of your organs and limbs individually, then saying you only weigh 75% of what you actually do because you missed a bunch of your body in the process. Instead of just stepping on a scale.

[DrVenture]

From the top link that I provided - "If the goal were simply to provide access to a metric of “private GDP” that does not include government expenditures, this is easily calculable by simply subtracting government spending from aggregate GDP (as shown in Figure 1). All relevant information for such calculations is already reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the agency responsible for compiling the national accounts. However, Mr. Musk and Mr. Lutnick seem to wish that GDP was not only supplemented with this additional measure but supplanted by it."

So, the issue is not that it is unavailable information, but rather why do neither of them seem not know this? And what is their true rationale here? Excuse my skepticism.

[DrVenture]

Originally Posted by Mech Spec

You seem to be of the notion that one can just "shut off" the government portion of the GDP calculation.

You can not, at least not truthfully, it would be making up the number.

So you would have to find a different metric that only accounts for private businesses. But that is stupid as all get out because you are ignoring a substantial part of the economy.

But all of this comes from the fact that some folks are grooming their news bubbles to be skeptical when gdp tanks. The entire discussion of the past few posts is happening because you were made to believe that gdp is somehow a flawed metric when it actually isnt.

Correct, and very evident with just a little research. Apparently rather that Gross Domestic Product, some want Selective Domestic Product to be our benchmark. Which they could easily obtain from data already in the public domain.

It isn't going to matter to anyone who loses a job or pays more at the grocery store or watches their 401K sink, that the GDP numbers are somehow supporting a rosier narrative. Or, more likely, providing cover for flawed policy decisions.

[Mech Spec]

I was trying to edit my post on my phone and I deleted it somehow. Oops.

[ASAP]

Originally Posted by DrVenture

Correct, and very evident with just a little research. Apparently rather that Gross Domestic Product, some want Selective Domestic Product to be our benchmark. Which they could easily obtain from data already in the public domain.

It isn't going to matter to anyone who loses a job or pays more at the grocery store or watches their 401K sink, that the GDP numbers are somehow supporting a rosier narrative. Or, more likely, providing cover for flawed policy decisions.

no one is arguing that... at least not from my side...

what i am saying is, report them both in the manner in which inflation is also reported ie core and non core side by side... not have a not so bright populace do their own math (which most cant do anyways)


i could ask why do we exclude core items out of one cpi and not the other? you would say volatility in pricing... i would say the family just getting by gets crushed either way financially and we are back at square one as this is a huge part of their spending

[DrVenture]

DJIA set to drop another 500 pts at the open, based on pre-market data.
Nasdaq is in correction territory.

“The risks of our bear case have risen ... we thought the market would end the year at 6,600 but have a 5% to 10% drawback during the course of the year that it would bounce back from. I do think the risks now are rising that we get something worse than a 10% drawdown — something, say, in the 14% to 20% range,” said Lori Calvasina, RBC Capital Markets head of U.S. Equity strategy, on CNBC’s “Squawk Box” Monday morning."

The New York Fed survey of consumer expectations is due out on Monday, and it will pair with the University of Michigan consumer sentiment reading on Friday.

On the inflation front, the February consumer price index release is slated for Wednesday, followed by the producer price index on Thursday.

[other_evolved]

Originally Posted by ASAP

again i say... show both... gdp w and gdp without...

as far as metrics... peoples poor understanding of unemployment and underemployment to show a full picture if what been happening is a prime example... you need to see both to see the whole equation

revisions to employment are completely acceptable if within a few % points..not thousands of jobs... i work in lets say a sector of finance and if i made a revision like that, i'd be cooked...

They already do show both. For those of us that read the GDP reports, it is a very detailed set of data that separates out the various components that add/detract from GDP.

Consumption + Investments + Government Spending + Net Exports = GDP

[DrVenture]

Originally Posted by other_evolved

They already do show both. For those of us that read the GDP reports, it is a very detailed set of data that separates out the various components that add/detract from GDP.

Consumption + Investments + Government Spending + Net Exports = GDP

I guess the notion is that people who cannot do basic subtraction, are going to find a use for more selective GDP numbers if they are spoon fed.

As I mentioned before, the only take-away I get from Musk and Bessent saying this, is that neither has ever read the reports.

[DrVenture]

Barron's 3/10/2025 highlights:

Pg 6: The U.S. global paradigm shift doesn’t favor the US stocks. In the new world order, several countries in Europe, Asia and elsewhere will be weaned out of their (military and/or financial) dependence on the US. Tariffs will punish friends and foes. The US Government will be downsized. The dollar’s role will be redefined. Global uber-rich may get the US residency with $5 million Gold Card. Lost in this blizzard of activities is that these moves won’t be good for the US stocks. Other countries will adjust to this global power vacuum financially and militarily and there may be some global disturbances. These countries would gradually reduce their purchases of US defense equipment. China already trades more with most countries than they do with the US.

The SP500 is near 200-dMA, but Nasdaq Comp, R2000 and DT Transport are now below 200-dMA. Beyond tariffs, there may be a government shutdown on 3/14/25. A defensive posture may be appropriate for investors."

Pg 10: The new tariff and immigration policies may hurt HOUSING affordability. Lot of lumber is imported from Canada, drywall from Mexico, appliances from many countries (mostly from China). Immigration policies will hurt the housing construction industry; many undocumented workers are just skipping work. Inflation has made housing materials and labor more expensive. Mortgage rates are in the 6-7% range. Housing wasn’t doing great, but now the outlook is worse despite the efforts to cut regulations and lower rates. The US has a housing shortage that will take years to fix. But now a slowdown in housing construction is coming. Privatizing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will also raise mortgage rates as those lose their GSE status. ETFs ITB and XHB are lagging the market.

Pg 22: Hecker cautions that Russia-Ukraine peace may be farther away than most believe. The EU security guarantee won’t work without the US security guarantee (and the presence of US businesses alone isn’t a security guarantee – there are many examples of the US businesses nationalized or confiscated in many places, Russia included). The EU would eventually follow whatever the US policy is for Ukraine and Russia. Putin thinks that he has been winning and may now think that his hand is stronger with the new US Administration. This mineral deal is puzzling – it may be symbolic only as both TRUMP and ZELENSKY would be very old by the time any minerals mined flow from Ukraine to the US. He also thinks that sanctions tend to be sticky and is watching if some of the Russian sanctions would actually reverse. Russian economy is in a bad shape and ruble has collapsed. But if there are elections in Ukraine, Russia will make every effort to tilt the future government towards it (and the US will try to tilt it towards the US). New book, “Zero Sum – The Arc of International Business in Russia”, 03/2025.

Pg 24: WHEAT rallied just after the Russia-Ukraine war started but has dropped 55% since then. Now there are supply issues due to bad weather (for wheat crops) and supply disruptions from continuing Russia-Ukraine war. Global inventories of wheat are also low. The biggest exporters are Russia, US, Ukraine. Conditions are right for wheat to rally. The ETF is WEAT.

Pg 24: There is lot of debate on how tariffs will affect the economy. But their effects will be through consumer behavior and spending. So, watch consumer and business confidence measures. Author Leonhardt recently visited Vietnam and saw how the global supply-chain are shifting from China and elsewhere to Vietnam. The new US tariffs will also apply to these production shifts in Asia and Lat Am (only onshoring would work, not near-shoring or friend-shoring). The new tariffs will start to affect the data in April. Torsten SLOK/APO says that they may increase inflation by +0.5% and reduce the GDP growth by -0.4%, but the bigger impact will ne in consumer confidence and spending. Consumer sentiment has been falling. Inflation expectations by business are also rising, +3.5% by manufacturing businesses, +4% by service businesses. Higher inflation-expectations may pull some spending forward, so the near term Q1 data may not show much, but Q2 and Q3 data may suddenly show sharp downturns. The CME FedWatch now projects 3 rate cuts in 2025 (based on fed fund futures trading data), but some think that there may be more cuts if the economy slows down too much. (Elsewhere, a FUNDS piece worries about the Fed raising rates, so there is just too much uncertainty.)\

Pg 50: J.W. MASON, CCNY and Roosevelt Institute (NYC think tank). Official INFLATION statistics don’t capture the pain of the public. The inflation data is based on baskets of goods and services but (i) the public doesn’t use the same baskets for households, and (ii) many things aren’t included in these baskets. Lawrence SUMMERS and his coauthors point out that missing from the BLS inflation data are interest expenses, asset purchases, financial transactions (?), etc. Other distortions are when the housing is accounted for through the OERs (owners equivalent rents) since 1983, and substitutions, seasonal adjustments and revisions. Because of many of these changes, the historical data on inflation aren’t very useful (inflation today isn’t your grandfather’s inflation). As an exercise, Summers et al applied pre-1983 inflation methodologies to the present and found that inflation today is much higher than that reported by the BLS. But those old methodologies were discarded because of problems. So, a better conclusion may be that the inflation pre-1983 wasn’t as high as reported then. Anyway, Summers et al present some good food for thought.

Pg 51: DOGE cuts at SSA are causing alarms. But SSA is a lean operation already and slashing staff will only cause delays in processing complex benefit cases (this despite the reports of rather quick payouts for WEP and GPO that could be processed with automation). People shouldn’t panic and file early unless they really need Social Security for living expenses. For couples, the lower-earning spouse can file early, while the higher-earning spouse can delay up to 70. Eventually the Congress will have to fix Social Security before drastic cuts are triggered in less than 10 years.

[DrVenture]

Take particular note of this potential/prediction from Barron's, "The CME FedWatch now projects 3 rate cuts in 2025 (based on fed fund futures trading data), but some think that there may be more cuts if the economy slows down too much."

This is a strong indication, when coupled with the sketchy outlook for stocks, that bond funds are going to continue (and even accelerate) their current outperformance. Smart money should position accordingly.

[Watching The World Burn]

Originally Posted by DrVenture

Take particular note of this potential/prediction from Barron's, "The CME FedWatch now projects 3 rate cuts in 2025 (based on fed fund futures trading data), but some think that there may be more cuts if the economy slows down too much."

This is a strong indication, when coupled with the sketchy outlook for stocks, that bond funds are going to continue (and even accelerate) their current outperformance. Smart money should position accordingly.

What bond funds do you recommend? I just went into a ultra short term bond (can't remember the name to be honest, will have to look up) for a little bit to park money.

[DrVenture]

Sure everyone saw this, still in case...

"Tesla shares plunge 15%, suffering steepest drop in five years
-After wrapping up its seventh straight losing week on Friday, Tesla’s slide continued, with the stock suffering its steepest drop since 2020.
-The company has now lost more than half its value since peaking on Dec. 17, a slump that has wiped out about $800 billion in market cap."

It is now $222, Morningstar says fair value is $250, but IMO that may be very optimistic.
This is the perfect storm of an absent leader with ketamine issues, flipping off his customer base (U.S. and international), and competition coming on hard. His plan seems to be to tout a Robotaxi (again) and promise to release a cheaper model, which may simply cannibalize sales from other Tesla models. Along the way, maybe blow up a few more rockets. If the stock gets to $150, I'd consider buying some shares for a quick flip.

[DrVenture]

Originally Posted by Watching The World Burn

What bond funds do you recommend? I just went into an ultra short term bond (can't remember the name to be honest, will have to look up) for a little bit to park money.

I like Ultrashorts as a cash sub for sure, and use the ETF TBUX. Provides a little more juice than MMF right now. I also like Pimco bond funds. I just placed a large order for some PIMIX for reasons stated above. It is a multi sector fund that is up a little over 3% YTD. Credit quality is considered "medium" and interest rate sensitivity "limited" FWIW.

Mind you, I don't give investment tips, so buyer beware. If fundamentals change, I can sell on a dime. My base case is that the trade war/ tariff thing is not going to be resolved very quickly. But should everyone decide to back down and become friendly, the whole situation could change. I expect bond funds, in that scenario, to still do well in 2025. But, stocks could come roaring back, should that happen.

https://www.morningstar.com/funds/xnas/pimix/quote

All the big investment houses have a selection of multi sector bond funds. Return is often correlated with risk. PIMIX has a good balance of risk/return.