[MKSixer]

Here is a great analysis from another international message board about the speed of the W12 and the RB16B. I think it is fair and provides the context necessary for all to see.

Qualifying

Bahrain: Advantage Red Bull - I say small-ish, it was 3 tenths, but could have been 1-2 tenths since Hamilton did a little mistake

Imola: Advantage Red Bull - again small-ish, Hamilton was on pole but both RB drivers had clear mistakes

Portugal: Advantage Mercedes - Merc appeared quicker but actually Max' lap would have been the quickest without track limits, if pressed I would give it to Mercedes, but close to a tie

Barcelona: Advantage Mercedes - but only just, the small gap seemed to fairly represent the gap

Monaco: Advantage Red Bull - again, only just, they did appear quicker all the time, but in the end the gap between Max and Bottas was small, could be also a tie

Baku: Advantage Mercedes - very marginally, Hamilton qualified ahead, but Max was a bit screwed over by Red Flags, could be also a tie

France: Advantage Red Bull - pretty straight forward 2 tenths gap

Spielberg: Advantage Red Bull - pretty straight forward 3 tenths gap

Spielberg: Advantage Red Bull - pretty straight forward 2 tenths gap

Silverstone: Advantage Mercedes - small gap, but Hamilton did a mistake, so would have been a straight forward 3 tenths advantage

Budapest: Advantage Mercedes - straight forward 4 tenths

Spa: Inconclusive - wet qualifying

Zandvoort: Advantage Red Bull - small gap, but would have been relatively straight forward 2 tenths gap normally

Overall: 7-5 for Red Bull (if not scoring the ones I saw as potential ties: 6-3)

Races
Bahrain: Tie - Mercedes kept up very well in the first stint and undercutted fairly easy, in the 2nd half Red Bull came back (after having some technical issues)

Imola: Inconclusive - In wet weather conditions Max pulled away but Hamilton had a front wing damage, after the red flag in completely different races with Merc appearing very quick, still inconclusive

Portugal: Advantage Mercedes - overall a tiny bit quicker

Barcelona: Advantage Mercedes - that one was clear, probably a bit hidden by track position

Monaco: Inconclusive - While Max did drop Bottas easily this is just something that always happens in races, if thats the case Red Bull has every race the quickest car ( ), also Monaco is always inconclusive on race day anyway

Baku: Advantage Red Bull - very easy overcut, then managed the gap easily

France: Advantage Mercedes - build a solid gap in the first stint, albeit not enough to cover the undercut, managed to be close in the 2nd stint most of the time before RB switched strategy, very marginal pace advantage though

Spielberg: Advantage Red Bull - pretty dominant

Spielberg: Advantage Red Bull - ditto

Silverstone: Inconclusive - for obvious reasons, based on sprint quali pretty equally matched though

Budapest: Inconclusive - again, for obvious reasons

Spa: Inconclusvie - for the most obvious reasons

Zandvoort: Advantage Red Bull - RB very similar to Mercedes' first stint in France, also Mercedes never in DRS, but also never really completely dropped, so small advantage here for Red Bull

Overall: 4-3 for Red Bull (caveat here that the races where Merc had their best qualis arent scored)

I think it's fair to conclude that the Red Bull overall has been better (much more in quali than in the races), but the claims that it is 80, 85 or 90 % of the time the quickest are complete BS. And even the whole talk about trends isnt true in my opinion either.

MOST RECENT RACES
Quali

Monza: Advantage Mercedes - clearly

Sochi: Advantage Mercedes - I will just assume it based on the fact that Sochi should be somewhere between Monza and Turkey performance wise and that practice indicated it (although I suspect Max didnt run meaningful quali sims), you can rate this inconclusive too though given that Max didnt took part

Turkey: Advantage Mercedes - clearly

Score: 8-7 for Mercedes (if not scoring the ones I saw as potential ties: 6-5 for Red Bull)

Race

Monza: Advantage Mercedes - I was going to rate this inconclusive because both Max and Lewis were basically stuck all race, but 1.)

Lewis cleared a McLaren eventually, even if the pitcrew threw this away, 2.) Bottas' progress was great.

Sochi: Tie - Bottas made catastrophic progress and was passed on track, indicates probably that the cars were at least fairly evenly matched if Max can do this. Hamilton also didnt exactly pull miracles.

Turkey: Advantage Mercedes - I normally rate a race like this inconclusive due to weather, but they were just all race quicker and all weekend, even with Bottas, hard to argue against.

Score: 5-4 for Mercedes (note here that many races went in my estimation inconclusive, especially on weekends where Merc was quicker in quali)