[LogicalApex]

Lots of great discussion here already.

Tariffs won't do anything except choke off the US economy without actually benefiting the American public as has been pitched. The biggest challenge tariffs will face is America can't quickly pull manufacturing back domestically. Lost in the framing that many have around them is that restarting manufacturing isn't just as simple as "Apple wants to build the iPhone in the US so let's build a factory" or something like that. You have all of the hundreds of thousands of auxiliary suppliers they need to manufacture the device.

The NYT did a write up of why Apple wasn't able to easily move manufacturing its computers back to the US. Apple failed to secure access to something as simple as the screws they needed since all of the manufactures for the screws were in China. So the American manufacturing had week long delays for screws to arrive that would take hours to drive over from one factory to another in China. None of this is a surprise though. When we were a manufacturing powerhouse you had manufacturing hubs filled with these suppliers. So the timing would have been similar here...

Then you have the knowledge issue. We haven't manufactured here in so long it will take a long time to build back the expertise that has been lost. So American made will actually cost more and be lower quality for a while...

We have massive domestic economic issues caused by globalization. The concept was a stupid one that ruined many parts of the American economy. We need to fix them, but tariffs aren't the path to it. We've let the globalization ship sail for fare too long already. American not depend on the cheap goods from places like China that without will negatively impact MANY. Realistically, we need to be negotiating trade deals that require the offshoring of American jobs to be fair & equitable so American workers are competing on common ground. Meaning, you can't just move your manufacturing to China due to no environmental or labor laws and you can't just sell in the American market without adhering to fair standards. Companies should be required to ensure similar labor law practices and environmental rules are adhered to in China or wherever they offshore the job out to. To help reduce the "race to the bottom" that globalization causes. We could then impose sanctions, etc, based on policies laid out in our trade agreements. That's the proper long term path.

The near term path is we need to invest domestically into ensuring the workforce is capable of ensuring we stay dominant in the industries we currently lead and may lead in the future. Ironically, we're failing to do that as well. The industries we lead by wide margins globally are in the STEM space which require advanced education and skills. Yet we're focused heavily on defunding our education system all but guaranteeing that we'll eventually lose our competitive advantage in these industries.

Sadly, the average American barely reads anymore let alone understands complex topics like economics and tariffs. They are hoping for a magic wand where none exists and will experience a lot of pain and misery in its pursuit. Much like all who seek magical solutions in a world devoid of magic... But there are opportunist who will, and are, exploiting their suffering for their own gain. Not with the intent of helping them, but with the intent purely of enriching themselves off them in a parasitical manner. Much like the televangelist who preaches riches and miracle cures to them in return for their "donations" who lives lavishly while they still endure their pain and often can barely afford to sustain themselves...

To answer the OP question though: BMW will certainly be squeezed by tariffs, but they are not yet worried because they don't know what the tariffs look like and they likely feel they have pricing room to pass it onto consumers at this point or they've pre-purchased enough of their supplies to help slow their need to absorb them. They can also be betting on increased growth in China or other markets even while the US market craters. Time will tell where it lands for BMW.

[DrVenture]

I think that BMW may well be worried, and having all sorts of backroom discussions, but they are not going to go public with a statement like "Our prices will go up more than usual". That would be idiotic. If it affects the price of cars it will also impact the cost of parts and maintenance. If tariffs cause overall inflation, they will impact affordability of all sorts of things from a consumer perspective.

What is notable about this tariff initiative is that it isn't coming from economists or business leaders or anyone like that. They hate the idea. It is populism, and appears to be rooted in fear and misinformation. Economic policy designed by people who are ignoring the business community. And based on misconceptions. How could that go wrong?

There is always a lot of talk about the dire state of U.S. manufacturing. "Manufacturers in the United States account for 10.70% of the total output in the country, employing 8.41% of the workforce. Total output from manufacturing was $2.5 trillion in 2021. In addition, there were an average of 12.5 million manufacturing employees in the United States in December 2021, with an average annual compensation of $95,990.00 in 2021." - National Association. of manufacturers.

https://www.cato.org/blog/united-sta...ing-powerhouse

"Contrary to common perception, US manufacturing continues to be a vibrant source of growth and economic dynamism. Provided Washington can avoid ill-advised schemes to “rescue” the industry it should remain so for many years to come."

Is the "solution" to a robust manufacturing sector to turn inward and service only our economy (5% of the world's population), at the expense of losing the other 95% of the world's business? All those emerging economies begging for a consumerist lifestyle? We decide we can't compete anymore, we don't like the situation, so we are going to take our ball and go home to throw it against the wall?

Doing business in China certainly has its share of hurdles. Not a level playing field. It has been that way for 50 years. But. U.S. corporations still see value in that, or they would not still be there after 50 years. And those same businesses do not see tariffs as the "solution" to anything.

[mks]

Originally Posted by Gemini562

When we placed tariffs on Chinese goods, China retaliated by taxing American products, which especially hurt our farmers, who then needed government assistance. For consumers like us, these tariffs mean higher prices on everyday items, so any savings from tax cuts often disappear into those added costs. In the end, it’s middle- and lower-income families who pay the price, as tariffs take back any gains from the tax cuts.

I get a little firsthand insight about the impact on agriculture as I have relatives in KS. In the case of the fallout from previous administration’s futile tariff tactics, followed by a failed trade war and the subsequently unsuccessful trade agreement with China, many may not be aware that aside from the block of subsidies and financial incentives famers already receive (commodity programs, insurance offsets, disaster relief, conservation program payouts, etc), more than 90% of the nominal gains were siphoned back out to the famers to help offset the pain caused by the persistently imprudent strong-arm economic tactics that amounted to an embarrassing episode of showboating. Apparently, trade wars are not good and easy to win. The myths surrounding the effectiveness of tariffs (in the face of other tools of political leverage, the 16th Amendment, historical evidence, etc) should by now by fully busted but....

Weird, but sometimes the narrative about the demonstrable impacts of “national interest” subjects (e.g., tariffs) in this stage of our modernity kinda playout like sports reporting. A game is announced, bets placed on which team (position, tactic, strategy) is favored to win, after kickoff, some focus very anecdotally on the play by play, while others holdout for the slightly less myopic quarterly analysis, but as we get nearer the final seconds of the game, coverage and attention experiences a kind of blackout and, somehow, no one knows who won—and lost.

The story of the fallout for the automotive, aero, and agriculture industry resulting from the previous administration’s failed trade war and the commensurate net negative results of the failed trade agreement experienced the same kinda of “blackout.” Maybe publications like the Council on Foreign Relations could work on bolstering their readership.

Sources:
PIIE: https://www.piie.com/blogs/realtime-...mps-trade-deal
CFR: https://www.cfr.org/blog/92-percent-...-angry-farmers
TF: https://taxfoundation.org/blog/tarif...e-food-prices/
TF: https://taxfoundation.org/research/all/federal/tariffs/
EWG: https://farm.ewg.org/
EWG: https://www.ewg.org/interactive-maps...der-trump/map/ (Agriculture Risk Coverage and Price Loss Coverage Map)
WSJ: https://www.wsj.com/economy/trade/ch...ugher-8e9e3e21
Atlantic Council: https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blog...ect-this-time/
BBC: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-43512098

[julienjj]

Originally Posted by IanH

Am I living in a parallel universe where NAFTA is still in place?

Not a single mention of the USMCA?

Man, that guy who negotiated the USMCA should get better at negotiating!

Anyway, as this is like the 4th or 5th thread on this topic, maybe someone should give the real answer and we can stop talking about it...

No the tariffs will not go into place as campaigned upon, because like most campaigns by most politicians 95% of what was promised was a lie.

Mainly because USMCA isn't as clear as NAFTA, and i have a feeling the name was chosen because it rings close to the YMCA song.

On the topic, the tariffs will 100% impact BMW prices because most the cheap interior plastic stuff they like to put in cars now is made in china. nearly the all LCD screens found in everything are made in china. So cluster, screens all will go up in prices. Keys, PCB for most modules, M badges etc...

All those low cost parts adds up to a noticeable amount.

[co_440i]

Your boy 47's tariffs are going to make everything more expensive for everybody. Hope it was worth it.

[cooolone2]

Guess it's not ok here... But Europe has already imposed tariffs on Chinese EV's, etc.

Not reading all the posts, bottom line is I couldn't care if it cost more. Pricing is already ridiculous, but you gotta pay to play! Don't want to play??? Buy a Toyota!

[FrankMstein]

Originally Posted by co_440i

Your boy 47's tariffs are going to make everything more expensive for everybody. Hope it was worth it.

Wait until the great '25/26 tire shortage/price increases hit...

[Emily172013]

Don't worry. What meaningful has Trump said that has come to pass.

[ZL9M2]

Originally Posted by FrankMstein

Wait until the great '25/26 tire shortage/price increases hit...

Yeah, we'll see how that all ages...

[LogicalApex]

Originally Posted by cooolone2

Guess it's not ok here... But Europe has already imposed tariffs on Chinese EV's, etc.

Not reading all the posts, bottom line is I couldn't care if it cost more. Pricing is already ridiculous, but you gotta pay to play! Don't want to play??? Buy a Toyota!

Biden already placed over 100% tariffs imposed on Chinese EVs (cars) coming into the US...

https://www.npr.org/2024/05/14/12509...ctric-vehicles

But Trump's move for across the board tariffs will be a joke. Hell, even before he's taken office businesses are ALREADY stockpiling and gearing up for raising prices as they know he's serious. It will be ugly starting in January.

https://www.wsj.com/economy/trade/am...d=hp_lead_pos2

But the average American is incapable of actually thinking so they somehow thought tariffs would lower prices .

No wonder the world sees us like the kid in the back of the classroom eating crayons...

[FrankMstein]

Originally Posted by LogicalApex

Biden already placed over 100% tariffs imposed on Chinese EVs (cars) coming into the US...

https://www.npr.org/2024/05/14/12509...ctric-vehicles

But Trump's move for across the board tariffs will be a joke. Hell, even before he's taken office businesses are ALREADY stockpiling and gearing up for raising prices as they know he's serious. It will be ugly starting in January.

https://www.wsj.com/economy/trade/am...d=hp_lead_pos2

But the average American is incapable of actually thinking so they somehow thought tariffs would lower prices .

No wonder the world sees us like the kid in the back of the classroom eating crayons...

Pinecones...

[iamgroot]

Originally Posted by NYG

Lefties are losing their minds and I'm loving every minute of it.

You should be less worried about the liberals who live in your head rent free and more worried about the economists who know tariffs are generally a bad idea, tax the consumer unnecessarily, and are easily circumvented by top offenders.

[BlkGS]

Originally Posted by iamgroot

You should be less worried about the liberals who live in your head rent free and more worried about the economists who know tariffs are generally a bad idea, tax the consumer unnecessarily, and are easily circumvented by top offenders.

The problem is those economists are ethe same ones who tried to tell us "inflation is good" and "Biden 's economy is strong". When you say that, and the average American is struggling to keep up with the cost of living, watch the food, energy, gas, and every other expense go up, while their pay check isn't... They're not gonna trust a damn thing the economists say.

Truth be told, this may be the best time ever for tariffs. The American consumer at the middle and lower levels have already had it with high prices, they will not pay more for things that are not an essential. You know what's not an essential? A new phone or TV from China. An EV made from Chinese components. Companies are already grappling with reduced demand from consumers, they know they can't pass tariff costs on and maintain any sort of meaningful sales in middle class products. So they'll either eat the cost, or they'll onshore production. Or since the CCP funds the dumping of most of the products anyways, the Chinese companies will eat the tariffs. The CCP 's whole goal is to make the world reliant on them by driving all their competitors out of business.

Couple that with the likely removal of the low cost product loophole that has fuel temu and shein and the like, production in China for American consumption is going to look very, very unattractive.

[iamgroot]

Originally Posted by BlkGS

The problem is those economists are ethe same ones who tried to tell us "inflation is good" and "Biden 's economy is strong". When you say that, and the average American is struggling to keep up with the cost of living, watch the food, energy, gas, and every other expense go up, while their pay check isn't... They're not gonna trust a damn thing the economists say.

Truth be told, this may be the best time ever for tariffs. The American consumer at the middle and lower levels have already had it with high prices, they will not pay more for things that are not an essential. You know what's not an essential? A new phone or TV from China. An EV made from Chinese components. Companies are already grappling with reduced demand from consumers, they know they can't pass tariff costs on and maintain any sort of meaningful sales in middle class products. So they'll either eat the cost, or they'll onshore production. Or since the CCP funds the dumping of most of the products anyways, the Chinese companies will eat the tariffs. The CCP 's whole goal is to make the world reliant on them by driving all their competitors out of business.

Couple that with the likely removal of the low cost product loophole that has fuel temu and shein and the like, production in China for American consumption is going to look very, very unattractive.

The economy is strong under Biden and inflation in the US is lower than the rest of the western world.

People are struggling with high prices, but a tariff will just increase those prices.

[tracer bullet]

Originally Posted by BlkGS

The American consumer at the middle and lower levels have already had it with high prices, they will not pay more for things that are not an essential.

I think you overestimate people. Think of the dumbest thing people will do, and you'll be a lot closer to reality.

[BlkGS]

Originally Posted by iamgroot

The economy is strong under Biden and inflation in the US is lower than the rest of the western world.

People are struggling with high prices, but a tariff will just increase those prices.

The economy has become excessively lopsided. The economy is great for people who own property, are heavily invested in the stock market, and are overall separated from cost of living. But that's not the majority of people in the US, it's a small minority in fact.

You can compare yourself to the rest of the world, but that argument doesn't hold up to people who couldn't care less about what failing Euro nations are doing and just want things to be as good as they were in 2019.

[NYG]

Originally Posted by iamgroot

You should be less worried about the liberals who live in your head rent free and more worried about the economists who know tariffs are generally a bad idea, tax the consumer unnecessarily, and are easily circumvented by top offenders.

Nov 24 join date comic book alt with a 5th grade level of analysis.

Typical lib.

Reddit --->

Originally Posted by iamgroot

The economy is strong under Biden and inflation in the US is lower than the rest of the western world.

People are struggling with high prices, but a tariff will just increase those prices.

Do you collect disability?

[FrankMstein]

Originally Posted by NYG

Nov 24 join date comic book alt with a 5th grade level of analysis.

Typical lib.

Reddit --->



Do you collect disability?

Wow, do you get your info from tiktok, typical rep...

[LogicalApex]

Originally Posted by BlkGS

The problem is those economists are ethe same ones who tried to tell us "inflation is good" and "Biden 's economy is strong". When you say that, and the average American is struggling to keep up with the cost of living, watch the food, energy, gas, and every other expense go up, while their pay check isn't... They're not gonna trust a damn thing the economists say.

Truth be told, this may be the best time ever for tariffs. The American consumer at the middle and lower levels have already had it with high prices, they will not pay more for things that are not an essential. You know what's not an essential? A new phone or TV from China. An EV made from Chinese components. Companies are already grappling with reduced demand from consumers, they know they can't pass tariff costs on and maintain any sort of meaningful sales in middle class products. So they'll either eat the cost, or they'll onshore production. Or since the CCP funds the dumping of most of the products anyways, the Chinese companies will eat the tariffs. The CCP 's whole goal is to make the world reliant on them by driving all their competitors out of business.

Couple that with the likely removal of the low cost product loophole that has fuel temu and shein and the like, production in China for American consumption is going to look very, very unattractive.

If the Tariffs are added as planned they'll have a devastating impact on the economy for middle and lower income Americans without any actual upside to them. There is literally zero upside. Especially with Trump targeting friendly nations in those tariffs as well as unfriendly ones like China.

The biggest winner from the tariffs will be China. The one thing China has been trying to obtain for over a decade now is reserve currency status around the world to replace the US dollar. This is likely to deliver that to them. The loss of the US dollar as the world's reserve currency will greatly impact the government's ability to borrow.

That's before you even begin to unpack the reality that bringing manufacturing back to America would be extremely difficult in a country that hasn't been a manufacturing powerhouse in decades. We have serious skill gaps that would impede our ability to quickly ramp up manufacturing domestically.

Originally Posted by BlkGS

The economy has become excessively lopsided. The economy is great for people who own property, are heavily invested in the stock market, and are overall separated from cost of living. But that's not the majority of people in the US, it's a small minority in fact.

You can compare yourself to the rest of the world, but that argument doesn't hold up to people who couldn't care less about what failing Euro nations are doing and just want things to be as good as they were in 2019.

If prices returned to 2019 levels that would be deflationary which is a sign of strong economic contraction. That's an unhealthy economy not a healthy one. In a healthy one you're aiming to reduce the growth rate for prices, but not turn them into a contraction. Your antidote to inflation is rising wages to counter the effects of the higher prices. That's why some economists were cautiously optimistic about the inflationary bump. If it could be slowed back to normal while also leading to wage increases it could help the US economy improve greatly since wage growth has renamed stagnant for decades.

Look at Japan if you want to see what that kind of contraction can do to an economy.

[BlkGS]

This skills gaps stuff cracks me up. Have you been in a modern manufacturing environment? The people doing these jobs aren't Samta' Elves that trained for hundreds of years on how to build this stuff. They're trained for a couple weeks in most cases, and follow a semi automated process.

The direct cause of the inflation we saw under Biden was the creation of several trillion dollars out of thin air, that were then injected into the financial industry. Portfolios skyrocketed while revenues and profits were down because the Fed was buying up securities. Banks were flush with cash and used it to invest in real estate to an unprecedented degree.

The federal reserve needs to start shrinking the money supply again, let the market take the hit, and rebuild better.

[LogicalApex]

Originally Posted by BlkGS

This skills gaps stuff cracks me up. Have you been in a modern manufacturing environment? The people doing these jobs aren't Samta' Elves that trained for hundreds of years on how to build this stuff. They're trained for a couple weeks in most cases, and follow a semi automated process.

The direct cause of the inflation we saw under Biden was the creation of several trillion dollars out of thin air, that were then injected into the financial industry. Portfolios skyrocketed while revenues and profits were down because the Fed was buying up securities. Banks were flush with cash and used it to invest in real estate to an unprecedented degree.

The federal reserve needs to start shrinking the money supply again, let the market take the hit, and rebuild better.

The inflation under Biden started under Trump and was a direct result of the COVID cash infusions into the economy which were unprecedented. The US issued thousands of dollars in direct payments to individuals and hundreds of thousands to businesses that wasn't required to be paid back.

We're all smart people here so we can understand how that lead to inflation and how the inflationary impact lingered for a while.

Over half the nation can't read beyond a 6th grade level and are addicted to TikTok videos. You think they can transition into skilled manufacturing

[BlkGS]

Originally Posted by LogicalApex

The inflation under Biden started under Trump and was a direct result of the COVID cash infusions into the economy which were unprecedented. The US issued thousands of dollars in direct payments to individuals and hundreds of thousands to businesses that wasn't required to be paid back.

We're all smart people here so we can understand how that lead to inflation and how the inflationary impact lingered for a while.

Over half the nation can't read beyond a 6th grade level and are addicted to TikTok videos. You think they can transition into skilled manufacturing

The direct payments were a drop in the bucket, and while the reckless fiscal policy started under Trump, Biden took it to the next level.

One of the manufacturing facilities I worked with had a large number of employees that literally could not read. They were some of the best operators they had there. There was a huge fiasco when they introduced a "skills test" for people to move from contract to full time. The operators complained it was too hard and was written at a grad school level. It was written for a 4th grade level of comprehension. I saw samples of it, it was insane, it was like sesame Street stuff. But the reality of it was, the people who failed it were great at their jobs, they didn't learn by reading, they learned by watching and hands on trying it. They could isolate issues with the equipment way better and faster than our trained engineers could. In the end the company pulled back on their test requirement (over the protests of corporate in New York), and instead started sponsoring adult education classes at the community college down the street that were free for their operators. I was surprised how many people took advantage of that.

All that to say, we could spin up more manufacturing very easily, if the investments were made. We have plenty of talent to manufacture things here, we just don't have corporate leadership that sees or cares about why they should.