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Originally Posted by LogicalApex

Over half the nation can't read beyond a 6th grade level and are addicted to TikTok videos. You think they can transition into skilled manufacturing

It's also the infrastructure, the buildings, the supply chain, and the whole idea to begin with that we'd suddenly turn our resources to manufacturing. And the American mindset in general these days. I've been around manufacturing for 30 years now, from diesel engines to tiny medical products, and I can promise that an entire country doesn't shift these kinds of practices in a short term. If there was a disastrous need it might show the beginnings of working out in a few years. If there was a general intent, even one government had a hand in to promote (which everyone bitches against - see EV's), we'd be talking 10 - 15 years minimum.

To make it truly worthwhile we'd have to export, a lot. That ship has sailed. Unless of course we do what China does, and subsidize, which screws us in a whole different way.

World trade is a barge, it doesn't change direction easily. Tariffs, even if they do something beneficial for us in the long run, aren't going to supply those benefits anytime soon, we're talking a generation from now. With a lot of pain to get there.

If one still wants to think they're good, fine. I think we might all agree we need a long term course correction in our favor. But let's not pretend it'll be an immediate benefit, that's ridiculous.

[FrankMstein]

Originally Posted by LogicalApex

The inflation under Biden started under Trump and was a direct result of the COVID cash infusions into the economy which were unprecedented. The US issued thousands of dollars in direct payments to individuals and hundreds of thousands to businesses that wasn't required to be paid back.

We're all smart people here so we can understand how that lead to inflation and how the inflationary impact lingered for a while.

Over half the nation can't read beyond a 6th grade level and are addicted to TikTok videos. You think they can transition into skilled manufacturing

Exactly and to keep the economy from crashing. Had this government not stepped in like all other governments did around the world, it would have been a global crash of epic proportions! Same with GM and FCA years ago. That would have put so many out of work. You can't just let the market correct itself sometimes - too big to fail.

Our economy has recovered with ease compared to some. Yes, things are higher but they are globally for a reason, COVID. Everyone piled on and didn't change their prices, except for the fuel industry which is based largely on S/D and NOT the president ffs. Like who is going to do that?

If you listen to real economists, tarifs like chump is lying about doing, it will screw shit up to unprecedented proportions. He's a liar/instigator and people believe what he says, sad really.

My wife hangs with a group of con women and they ALL get their political info from TikTok, ALL. D.E.V.O. I wish more people had the factory installed bs detector option.

I also deal with a lot of Tier1 and 2 and automotive plants in Saltillo MX and if you know anything about how chumps NAFTA replacement and COVID together as created a huge (accordion hands here) influx of businesses to the area and a void of workforce because of it, inflation is out of control. House prices are more out of whack than they are here! Europe does not have a "low cost" country at their back door and a lot have located a lot of their US market share in the Detroit of the south...M2 production is in SLP.

Yeah, we'll see...

[FrankMstein]

Originally Posted by BlkGS

The direct payments were a drop in the bucket, and while the reckless fiscal policy started under Trump, Biden took it to the next level.

One of the manufacturing facilities I worked with had a large number of employees that literally could not read. They were some of the best operators they had there. There was a huge fiasco when they introduced a "skills test" for people to move from contract to full time. The operators complained it was too hard and was written at a grad school level. It was written for a 4th grade level of comprehension. I saw samples of it, it was insane, it was like sesame Street stuff. But the reality of it was, the people who failed it were great at their jobs, they didn't learn by reading, they learned by watching and hands on trying it. They could isolate issues with the equipment way better and faster than our trained engineers could. In the end the company pulled back on their test requirement (over the protests of corporate in New York), and instead started sponsoring adult education classes at the community college down the street that were free for their operators. I was surprised how many people took advantage of that.

All that to say, we could spin up more manufacturing very easily, if the investments were made. We have plenty of talent to manufacture things here, we just don't have corporate leadership that sees or cares about why they should.

Skilled labor isn't cheap, cheap labor isn't skilled.
They would pay you less if they could.
I can't wait for the privatization of the educational system here. It's gone so well for prisons <<sarcasm>> , which the two are looking more and more similar.

[LogicalApex]

Originally Posted by BlkGS

The direct payments were a drop in the bucket, and while the reckless fiscal policy started under Trump, Biden took it to the next level.

One of the manufacturing facilities I worked with had a large number of employees that literally could not read. They were some of the best operators they had there. There was a huge fiasco when they introduced a "skills test" for people to move from contract to full time. The operators complained it was too hard and was written at a grad school level. It was written for a 4th grade level of comprehension. I saw samples of it, it was insane, it was like sesame Street stuff. But the reality of it was, the people who failed it were great at their jobs, they didn't learn by reading, they learned by watching and hands on trying it. They could isolate issues with the equipment way better and faster than our trained engineers could. In the end the company pulled back on their test requirement (over the protests of corporate in New York), and instead started sponsoring adult education classes at the community college down the street that were free for their operators. I was surprised how many people took advantage of that.

All that to say, we could spin up more manufacturing very easily, if the investments were made. We have plenty of talent to manufacture things here, we just don't have corporate leadership that sees or cares about why they should.

What did Biden do that "took it to the next level"? Genuine question.

I don't see America being capable of pulling manufacturing domestically. We can't unring the bell that has been rung. The sad part is we're killing the industries we are leading in a pursuit of a past long gone.

We're leading in IT, but that requires advanced skills. So what do we do? We demonize education so our workforce is less and less capable. We then fill the gaps with immigration to pull the brightest minds from other countries (as we've done since WW2). We demonize immigration and immigrants such that more and more of those people are returning home to their native countries after they pursue education here (leading to a brain drain).

The sad reality is we wasted the golden age we were given. In the post WW2 era experienced a golden age due to the destruction of all economic peers. We entered into the post WW2 era far ahead with economic ties that extended that golden age. But we squandered it much like the lottery winner who spends all their money forgetting that it is a finite resource.

Now we're entering a competitive age again unprepared for competition. With many in our population hoping we'll go back to that golden age the likes of which is likely never to return.

We need to be enhancing our strengths so we're able to stay competitive. But here we are.

[BlkGS]

Originally Posted by tracer bullet

It's also the infrastructure, the buildings, the supply chain, and the whole idea to begin with that we'd suddenly turn our resources to manufacturing. And the American mindset in general these days. I've been around manufacturing for 30 years now, from diesel engines to tiny medical products, and I can promise that an entire country doesn't shift these kinds of practices in a short term. If there was a disastrous need it might show the beginnings of working out in a few years. If there was a general intent, even one government had a hand in to promote (which everyone bitches against - see EV's), we'd be talking 10 - 15 years minimum.

To make it truly worthwhile we'd have to export, a lot. That ship has sailed. Unless of course we do what China does, and subsidize, which screws us in a whole different way.

World trade is a barge, it doesn't change direction easily. Tariffs, even if they do something beneficial for us in the long run, aren't going to supply those benefits anytime soon, we're talking a generation from now. With a lot of pain to get there.

If one still wants to think they're good, fine. I think we might all agree we need a long term course correction in our favor. But let's not pretend it'll be an immediate benefit, that's ridiculous.

Agreed, it's a long term shift that we have to take actions starting now. It will not be accomplished overnight, it won't be accomplished over a single presidency, to truly rebuild our capabilities we need to focus on it over a long term. There will be some small wins that we see here and there that people will point to as proof of success, but they won't be the real successes

At the end of the day, manufacturing is going to determine who gets to have the biggest stick in world affairs. If China is allowed to maintain a critical hold on manufacturing of most things, the threat of turning off access to modern essentials like pharmaceutical base chemicals, etc. would be enough to enforce their will. When China decides to invade Taiwan and claim it as their own, and the world is plunged into war again, without supply chains not reliant on China, any war effort is going to be seriously hampered, let alone what keeping a somewhat normal day to day life in the US or other countries.

[SteveYem]

Originally Posted by tturedraider

It’s amazing to me it that after four years of experience with Trump it seems the vast majority of people still don’t understand how he operates.

Hear, hear. Apparently half the voting American public is in the mindset of "Thank you sir, may I have another!"


I understand how, theoretically, a imposing a tariff on an imported product could steer the country onto a course of manufacturing that product domestically instead. However, it seems that a lot of misguided folks in the USA believe that the exporting manufacturing country would be the one footing the bill, cutting into their own profit margin to continue selling product into the USA. That might work for a product for which the USA consumer base has multiple sources (i.e. competition), but for product upon which the USA consumer base largely relies, e.g. iPhones and other personal electronic devices, the immediate (and possibly lasting) effect of an applied import tariff will be higher price tag to the US consumer.

Also, labor cost to achieve the same level of quality and efficiency in the USA versus that of China and other low-cost manufacturing countries would likely far outweigh the price increase due to imposed import tariffs, so the long-term effect would be for the American consumer to pay relatively higher prices for products with the net change being 'Made in USA' etched into the nameplate.

I'm all about nuance. Start manufacturing the products in USA that make sense to produce in the USA, but don't make a sweeping wholesale change and buck the entire system. The lifted pickup truck bros bemoaning the price of a carton of eggs are going to lose their minds when they see the new price of their Galaxy S23.